Shanghai Rolex Masters Betting: Tie breaks look likely when Berdych and Karlovic clash

Hands up if you expect a tie break

The third round of the 2014 Shanghai Rolex Masters is the order of the day on Thursday and tennis expert Sean Calvert previews the action at the Qi Zhong Tennis Centre...

My first bet of the day on Wednesday was most unfortunate, as Martin Klizan failed to serve the match out for a straight sets win over Ferrer and ended up struggling physically and going out in three to the Spaniard.

I said yesterday that I fancied a few upsets and Rafa Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov were all beaten as decent favourites, while Milos Raonic retired suffering with a fever, and Roger Federer had to save several match points.

My second bet of the day ensured that we were in profit on Wednesday, when Feli Lopez took the opening set off Nadal 6-3 to land the 3.02/1 shot about Lopez winning set one.

My outright pre-tournament tip, Tomas Berdych, also had a good day by comfortably beating Richard Gasquet and seeing Nadal, Wawrinka and Raonic go out of the event from his section.

Thursday's play begins at 6am UK time when conditions will be around 23C and humid at 65 percent.

Andy Murray's reward for a good performance against Jerzy Janowicz is a 13th career meeting with Ferrer and although I expect Murray to win this the layers have gone a touch over the top with the prices.

The Brit is a 1.282/7 shot at the time of writing to beat Ferrer and I can't see much value in that, although I do expect Murray to win.

He hasn't been that short against Ferrer since the World Tour Finals in 2011 when he was a 1.111/9 shot - and Murray lost that day.

I'm slightly tempted to go with Ferrer on the handicap at those prices, but I'll pass on that one.

A better bet can be found in the opening match of the day on Thursday between Berdych and Ivo Karlovic, where the first set correct score market looks very good there.

Berdych struggles against Karlovic, with the Croatian winning four of their last five matches, including the one this year in the first round of Doha.

Anyone can get taken down by Dr Ivo in the opening round of a tournament in the right conditions and it also happened to Berdych again at the hands of Karlovic indoors in Basel a year ago.

Of the last eight sets that they've played against each other five have been tie breaks and four of them have been won by the Croatian, which makes the 5.04/1 about him winning the opener 7-6 of interest.

The 11:30 UK time match between John Isner and Lopez also screams 'tie break' and five of the last seven sets they've played against each other have ended in a breaker.

I like the 4.03/1 about Lopez taking the opener here by a score of 7-6 and I would side with him in the match odds too, with Isner rarely anywhere near his best away from the United States.

Lopez has a 13-5 record in this tournament and the quick conditions suit the Spaniard's game, with my only concern being the stomach issue he mentioned a couple of days ago.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to win set one 7-6 vs Berdych at 5.04/1
Back Lopez to win set one 7-6 vs Isner at 4.03/1