Rogers Cup 2014 Betting: Underdog Dimitrov can catch Tsonga sleeping

Can Grigor Dimitrov shake off the fatigue today?

The semi finals of the Rogers Cup are the order of the day in Toronto, where Sean Calvert selects the best bets in Grigor Dimitrov vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga...

A strange few days at the Rogers Cup 2014 took another turn for the weirder on Friday when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga added the name of Andy Murray to his scalps for the week.

It was a poor loss for Murray, who was in control of proceedings at 3-0 in the final set and heading towards victory and to covering the handicap, but a bizarre collapse allowed Tsonga off the hook.

More misfortune followed when Feli Lopez and Milos Raonic went to a tie break in the second set rather than the first in a match that the Spaniard went on to stun the home favourite in three sets.

Elsewhere there was a choke for ages from Kevin Anderson, who handed Grigor Dimitrov a free pass to today's semi final against Tsonga.

I said in my pre-tournament preview that we would probably see a big-priced finalist this week, but I expected it to be in the wide-open bottom half of the draw rather than the top.

Tsonga was matched at 180179/1 to win this tournament, which should have been a fair reflection of his chances, but a weak effort from Novak Djokovic and whatever that was yesterday from Murray has seen the Frenchman in to 4.57/2.

It will be the fourth career meeting between Tsonga and Dimitrov and it may not get any easier for Grigor, who's had to struggle through three final set deciders already this week.

He's come out on the right side though and that will perhaps make him more determined to see this one through - not that he should need any extra motivation with a potential maiden Masters 1000 crown at stake.

With Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro absent and Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer and Raonic already out there is a huge chance for someone and much of this match is likely to be decided by the level of fatigue that Dimitrov is feeling.

Tsonga has been serving well this week, but I would favour Dimitrov were it not for the long matches that he's had compared with Jo, who has spent far less time on court.

All of this pair's prior meetings came in 2011 and much has changed since then, with Jo's level declining and Grigor's improving and I wouldn't be backing Tsonga at odds-on here.

There's a decent chance that if I don't suggest a 7-6 win for one player or the other then it will happen today and that bet pays 6.05/1 on Tsonga or 7.06/1 on Dimitrov.

I'm not sure I trust the fitness of Dimitrov after the battles he's already had this week and with Tsonga often a slow starter the 2.15n/a about the Bulgarian to win set one holds the most appeal in a tricky betting heat.

Recommended Bet
Back Dimitrov to win set one at 2.15n/a

Rogers Cup 2014 profit and loss

Staked: 90.00 (based on a 10 stake per bet)
Returned: 70.80
Profit: – 19.80