"How many goals tonight, Rafa?"
It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...
Bet 1: River Plate (HOME) @ 1.61 (8/13) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:15 BST
River Plate are the defending champions of Argentina and they have continued that good form into this season as they've taken seven points from a possible nine. The key to their success last year was their home form as they won nine times from 10 outings, keeping a hugely impressive eight clean sheets.
Marcelo Gallardo's side have only played once in front of their own fans this term and that resulted in another win and another clean sheet. 'Los Millonarios' then took their form to new heights at the weekend by beating Godoy Cruz 4-0 in their own backyard.
Defensa y Justica were promoted from the second tier last season and they've made a solid start to life in the top flight. An opening day loss was followed up with a win at Banfield and a draw with Quilmes, but this represents a big step up in class, and it's doubtful that Dario Franco's men will be able to lay a glove on the champs.
Bet 2: Sunderland (AWAY) @ 2.05 (21/20)
Sunderland made it all the way to the final of the Capital One Cup last year and they even took the lead against Man City before eventually losing 3-1. While they were blessed with all home ties during that run, they beat decent opposition along the way - Southampton, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Given that success, I expect Gus Poyet to take this competition seriously once again and while he will no doubt make a couple of changes to his starting XI, it should still be a strong one.
Birmingham somehow avoided the drop to League One last season but that was largely down to their results away from St Andrews. The Blues were dire at home - just two league wins from 23 attempts - and while they have beaten Brighton there this term, they followed that up with a draw against Ipswich.
Class should prevail here and The Black Cats look like excellent value at odds-against to get the job done inside 90 minutes.
Bet 3: Athletic Bilbao v Napoli (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20) - Live on Sky Sports Interactive at 19:45 BST
Athletic Bilbao have given themselves an excellent chance of making the group phase of the Champions League following their excellent 1-1 draw in Italy. The second leg is far from a formality though and while the players were perhaps distracted by this fixture during their defeat at Malaga on Saturday, a La Liga loss isn't exactly the ideal preparation for this game.
It's the goal-side of things we're concentrating on here though and 'Los Leones' are usually good for them. While they haven't yet played a competitive match at San Mams this term, last year's data shows us that 14 of their 22 competitive games went over 2.5 goals - including five of their most recent seven.
Napoli will be desperate to get through this tie and qualify for the Champions League proper as they were desperately unlucky to not make it out of a group that contained both Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal last year.
Rafa Benitez's men did well to finish third in Serie A but they were seven points adrift of Roma in second and a whopping 24 behind Juventus.
Interestingly though, they outscored the former by five goals over the course of the campaign and only netted three less than the latter. Their matches averaged 3.05 goals per 90 minutes, with exactly half going over 2.5.
Bet 4: Estudiantes v Boca Juniors (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 01:30 BST
Estudiantes went mightily close to topping the Torneo Final last year but two defeats and a draw in their final five fixtures dropped them down to third place behind River Plate and Boca Juniors. With only 11 goals conceded during that semester, 'Los Pincharratas' had the best defensive record in the entire division.
It hasn't been a great start to the new campaign for Mauricio Pellegrino's side as they've already fallen to two defeats but both of those came on the road, and they won their sole match in La Plata - 1-0 - meaning that seven of their last eight at home have now finished with two goals or less.
Boca Juniors slumped to another miserable defeat in front of their own fans at the weekend and club legend, Carlos Bianchi, must be on the verge of an exit from the Buenos Aires based outfit.
Strangely enough, their away form has been excellent of late as they come into this match on the back of four successive victories - three of which were to nil. Bianchi can't afford a loss here given their troubles at La Bombonera and I expect him to set his team up to keep it tight and come out with a draw at worst.
Recommended Multiple
Back River Plate @ 1.61 (8/13)
Back Sunderland @ 2.05 (21/20)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Athletic Bilbao v Napoli @ 1.95 (19/20)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Estudiantes v Boca Juniors @ 1.5 (1/2)
The Multiple pays approximately 9.65 (17/2)
Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 34 pts
Returned: 83.56 pts
P/L: + 49.56 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)
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