AEL Limassol v Tottenham: Don't expect a Cypriot holiday for Pochettino's men

Mauricio Pochettino is taking charge of a European game for the first time

Tottenham are the current favourites to win the Europa League, but Kevin Hatchard suspects they won't have things all their own way in Cyprus against AEL...

AEL Limassol v Tottenham Hotspur
Thursday August 21, 17:00

Match Odds: AEL 8.88/1, Spurs 1.4840/85, the draw 4.57/2

Having once again missed out on a place at European football's top table, Spurs' annual flirtation with the Europa League is set to begin in Cyprus. The North London giants have somewhat surprisingly been named as favourites to win the competition at 14.5n/a, and I have to say that's not a price which excites me. Tottenham undoubtedly have the squad to go deep into the tournament, but there are already a clutch of good sides ready to oppose them, and their ranks will be swelled by Champions League dropouts next year.

New Spurs coach Mauricio Pochettino is taking the tiller in a European campaign for the first time, and he has been boosted by the weekend's battling 1-0 win at London rivals West Ham. Tottenham survived the sending-off of Kyle Naughton and Mark Noble's missed penalty, securing an improbable stoppage-time victory with a goal from new signing Eric Dier.

I suspect Pochettino will work his magic with Spurs, and his attractive tactical mix of positive passing and high pressing will please the faithful at White Hart Lane. However, these adjustments will take time to bed in. The Argentine is expected to shuffle his pack for this game - Roberto Soldado and Paulinho could both be given chances to stake a claim for first-team spots, while former Swansea left-back Ben Davies could make his debut.

The market seems to think that AEL will be pushovers in front of their fans in Limassol, but recent European results suggest that won't be the case. AEL beat Andre Villas-Boas' Zenit St Petersburg 1-0 in a Champions League qualifier recently, and although they lost the return leg 3-0, the win shows they can still perform at this level.

If we go back to AEL's Europa League games from last season, we see they were tough cookies at home in the group stage. They beat Marseille 2-1, held Borussia Monchengladbach to a goalless draw, and only lost 1-0 to Fenerbahce. If we go further back to their Champions League qualification efforts in 2012, we can see that they secured home wins against Linfield, Partizan Belgrade and Anderlecht, only to fall at the final hurdle with a return-leg defeat in Belgium.

Given this impressive European home record, and the fact that Spurs are still in the very early stages of Pochettino's reign, I'm happy to back AEL with a goal start on the Asian Handicap at 2.166/5. That means you can only lose if Spurs win by two goals or more, and a draw or a home win will pay out. I am confident that Tottenham will come through the tie, but I just don't think they'll find this first leg as straightforward as many are predicting, especially given the cloying heat and humidity that's expected in Limassol.

Recommended Bet
Back AEL Limassol +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.166/5