The Big Match Tactical View: Man City v Liverpool

Manchester City's David Silva will pull the strings in midfield

The first huge fixture of the Premier League season takes place on Monday evening, between last season's top two. Michael Cox gives you the tactical lowdown, while professional trader Alan Thompson has the betting angle.

Manchester City v Liverpool
Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Manchester City 1.910/11, Liverpool 4.57/2, The Draw 4.1n/a.

Both Manchester City and Liverpool stuttered to nervous victories on the opening weekend, and both will be determined to find their best form in this exciting Monday night fixture.

Perhaps it was understandable that neither showcased their best football last weekend, at least when compared to the sparkling form they showed throughout last season's Premier League run-in. The two sides had similar experiences - Liverpool wobbled in the second half against Southampton and had some nervous moments on the way to a 2-1 win, while City's 2-0 victory at Newcastle was slightly flattering.

At this early stage of the campaign, question marks remain about both sides' optimum line-up. Both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rodgers have improved their squad rather than necessarily making their first XI stronger than last season - although the imminent arrival of Mario Balotelli could change that - and therefore they have more tactical options than last season. In a big game at such an early stage of the season, it feels like both managers could choose a relatively cautious XI.

For Manchester City, that could mean playing with just one forward. Pellegrini's first-choice XI features two upfront, but in big matches he's often played just one upfront, with either David Silva or Yaya Toure providing the closest support. 

Sergio Aguero still isn't up at 100% fitness, and Edin Dzeko was superb against Newcastle last week, teeing up Silva's opener with an exquisite backheel. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bosnian continue, with Stevan Jovetic dropped and a beefed up midfield.

Pellegrini was never entirely sure about using Toure as the number ten last season, because he lacked a truly reliable holding midfielder. But the arrival of Fernando means he could play alongside his near-namesake and compatriot Fernandinho, creating an incredibly strong midfield trio, and helping City to command the centre of the pitch. Silva and Samir Nasri will drift inside from wide positions, and Liverpool could struggle to cope in midfield.

That means Rodgers could also field a cautious XI. Unlike the run-in last season, when Steven Gerrard played as the primary holding midfielder, last week Rodgers played Lucas Leiva alongside him in the centre. With Emre Can another option, and Jordan Henderson a surefire starter, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Rodgers pack the middle too. Coutinho could drop out, with Raheem Sterling likely to provide the closest support to Daniel Sturridge.

Therefore, this could be a disappointingly tame contest, in stark contrast from the thrilling previous meeting between these two sides. Expect the teams to play differently with the ball - City will attempt to get Silva orchestrating the play with his neat passing, and get Dzeko towards the ball to showcase his clever link play. Liverpool should be more direct, not necessarily playing on the counter, but hitting City's backline as quickly as possible. Sterling and Sturridge - the new SAS - could be too pacey for City's defenders, who often look uncomfortable high up the pitch.

It's difficult to read too much into the battles out wide, because there's a chance we won't see any true wingers if Sterling is given a central role. With the wide midfielders drifting inside, there could be opportunities for the full-backs to fly forward - Aleksandar Kolarov was particularly involved at Newcastle, and if the play becomes congested he could be a consistent out-ball on the left. 

Liverpool's new right-back Javier Manquillo might find City focus their passing down his flank - he was booked last weekend and would be good value at 4.47/2 to be shown another card.

In a tight game, set-pieces could be crucial. Vincent Kompany, Martin Skrtel and Kolarov are all threats from deal ball situations, and it's worth keeping an eye on their First Goalscorer odds for a decent outside bet.

Recommended bet:
Back Javier Manquillo to be shown a card at 4.47/2

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Manchester City have only lost three of their last 57 Premier League home games and have only failed to score in one of those games (0-1 Chelsea). They welcome the best (statistically) away side of last season in Liverpool, who scored 48 times, only failing to score in a 2-0 defeat at The Emirates and suffered just four defeats on the road. Last season both City (102) and Liverpool (101) scored more than 100 Premier League goals, something previously only achieved by Chelsea (103) in 2010.

You could argue that both teams to score, even priced at 1.6 is value – both teams have started where they left off last season, scoring twice in their opening fixtures and in five of the last six meetings between these two, they have both scored, sharing a total of 21 goals in those six games. Last season’s two fixtures produced eight goals with honours shared as each side won their home fixture.

In the match odds market I was surprised to see Manchester City @ 1.89, I personally had them at 1.7 on my tissue. Manchester City’s average winning margin at home last season was 2.63 so rather than back them at 1.89 in the match odds market I will go to the Asian Handicap market and back Manchester City at -0.5 & -1 @ odds of at least 2.1. I will also be trying to get an in-running bet on over 3.5 goals at 3.2 matched (using keep option) should it reach that level.