How has Nadal’s withdrawal affected US Open odds?

How has Nadal’s withdrawal affected US Open odds?

By Dan Weston Aug 19, 2014

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Tennis bettors were shocked after defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the US Open.  This tennis betting article assesses the impact the Spaniard’s withdrawal has on the rest of the field, and how it impacts the outright markets.

It was no secret that Nadal was injured – he’s missed the Masters warm-up events in Toronto and Cincinnati.  However, it was generally felt that his injured wrist would be strong enough for him to participate at the US Open, which starts on Monday, 25th August.

As has been mentioned in many previous articles , Grand Slams (seven rounds of best of five sets) are arduous events that test players’ fitness levels more than typical ATP events, which are best of three sets, and can won playing as few as four matches in normal ATP events. It appears that Nadal realised his body was unable to deal with the rigours of a Grand Slam, as opposed to an ATP tournament, and made his decision based on that basis.

When the US Open preview was written, Nadal was priced at 4.80.  This implies that the market, at that time, gave him a 20.83% chance of winning.  Only Novak Djokovic, at 2.53, was more favoured to win the tournament, with an implied percentage of 39.53%.

Therefore, due to Nadal’s withdrawal from the US Open, his 20.83% chance of winning needed to be re-distributed amongst the remaining players in the field.

The following table illustrates how the markets have changed since the US Open preview was published on the 28th July.

Player

28th July Price (with Nadal)

Implied Winning %

19th August Price (without Nadal)

Implied Winning %

Implied Winning % Difference

Djokovic

2.53

39.53

2.37

42.19

2.67

Nadal

4.80

20.83

N/A

0.00

-20.83

Federer

9.60

10.42

4.34

23.04

12.62

Wawrinka

17.70

5.65

19.16

5.22

-0.43

Berdych

56.60

1.77

73.52

1.36

-0.41

Ferrer

86.91

1.15

68.34

1.46

0.31

Raonic

34.36

2.91

24.34

4.11

1.20

Dimitrov

20.21

4.95

21.75

4.60

-0.35

Murray

6.57

15.22

6.16

16.23

1.01

Federer, Berdych & Tsonga: Chances improve dramatically

As highlighted, the price on Roger Federer winning has dramatically increased, with the Swiss world number three’s price going from 9.60 to 4.34 since the preview was written. Since then, Federer was runner-up at the Toronto Masters and won the Cincinnati Masters last week.  Clearly Federer is currently the man in form, although he was defeated in Round 16 by Tommy Robredo in straight sets last year.

Tsonga, who defeated Federer in Canada to take the title, has also seen his price slashed recently.  The Frenchman, who prior to Toronto had a very uninspiring 2014, was priced at over 100.00 to win the US Open, but now is trading at 24.34 – an implied probability difference of 3%.

Novak Djokovic, despite his uncharacteristic poor form, has also benefited from Nadal’s injury, with his odds shortening by 2.67%.  The world number one got married after his Wimbledon triumph and since then has won just two matches, despite starting all of those matches priced below 1.20. Having said this, the Serb clearly should benefit from his closest rival’s withdrawal and despite his poor form, it’s logical that Djokovic’s price has contracted.

Also mentioned in the US Open preview was the poor record of both Federer and Tomas Berdych against left-handers.

Clearly, with the highest ranked left-hander now out of the event, this should improve their chances significantly, and may be a further factor in the dramatic shortening of Federer’s price.

Interestingly, after just one win in two US Masters events, and defeats against Feliciano Lopez (another left-hander) and Yen-Hsun Lu, Berdych’s price has drifted a little although that represents a very small difference in his implied percentage.  If the Czech can show he’s over his slump, then he offers value for a good run, with Djokovic the only player he should genuinely fear.  The world number six has won three of his last six clashes with Federer, so should not be overawed against the Swiss legend.

The withdrawal of one of the leading players in the market will make for a fascinating US Open, and the draw for the event – with Roger Federer now likely to be the second seed – will make for very interesting reading indeed.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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