The Big Match Tactical View: Everton v Arsenal

Can Roberto Martinez cause Arsenal problems again?

Everton collected four points from Arsenal last season, and Arsene Wenger won't relish this difficult away match between two crucial Champions League qualifiers. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview Saturday's late game...

Everton v Arsenal
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Everton 2.8415/8, Arsenal 2.727/4, The Draw 3.55/2.

Everton's 3-0 victory over Arsenal in this fixture in April was one of the finest Premier League displays of the season, and after a summer of consolidation for Everton, Roberto Martinez will be hoping for something similar this time around.

While the signings of Muhamed Besic and Christian Atsu might prove crucial later in the campaign, for now Martinez is understandably keen to stick with the players who excelled last season, and last weekend's XI for the draw against Leicester was comprised of 11 players who were at the club throughout 2013/14.

With the exception of a possible return for Seamus Coleman at right-back in place of the more cautious John Stones, Martinez won't make significant changes to his defence or his two central midfielders.

Further forward, however, Martinez could surprise Arsene Wenger. In that 3-0 win he used Romelu Lukaku from the right flank and Steven Naismith upfront - Lukaku charged into space while Naismith distracted the Arsenal centre-backs, while over on the left Leighton Baines and Kevin Mirallas constantly attacked into space, with Baines continually charging past Santi Cazorla.

That last zone will be of particular interest this time around, as Wenger can't afford to let new right-back Mathieu Debuchy be exposed in the same way Bacary Sagna was in this fixture last season.

This is a genuine concern, because so far he's played Debuchy and Alexis Sanchez together down the right - the duo have little understanding together at this early stage, and it remains to be seen whether Sanchez wants to track back and protect his full-back.

Baines could get space on the overlap, and his long-standing relationship with Steven Pienaar was in evidence for Naismith's goal against Leicester last weekend. Debuchy could be overloaded, and has a tendency to dive into tackles - I'll back him to be shown a card at 5.04/1.

Lukaku could again be fielded from the right, with Naismith making clever runs in central positions - if not, expect them to switch positions regularly. Martinez also has a decision about who to field in the central number 10 position, with Ross Barkley unavailable. He could field four attacking players, but against Arsenal it seems more likely he'll recall Leon Osman, especially because Everton need someone who can find pockets of space as Arsenal are without first-choice holding midfielder Mikel Arteta.

Wenger has a decision about whether to bring back his World Cup-winning trio of Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil and Per Mertesacker. He's usually very cautious about this type of thing, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them on the bench this weekend.

It will be a very different challenge to last weekend, when Arsenal narrowly defeated a Crystal Palace side who made no attempt to dominate possession and sat very deep - Everton will come onto Arsenal, which means Wenger's side must be capable of attacking directly.

That puts great emphasis upon Sanchez, likely to play from the right, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain given a start, perhaps on the left. Cazorla looked off the pace against Palace, and Oxlade-Chamberlain is a specialist at tracking the opposition full-back before roaring forward from deep positions. He looked lively as a substitute against Besiktas, and could even start in a central midfield position.

Arsenal are the better side, but Everton have a few factors on their side here - home advantage, more rest coming into the game, and a more settled side with few new signings in the process of integrating. This looks an evenly balanced clash, and it's difficult to imagine either manager being too disappointed with a draw, which therefore looks good value at 3.55/2.

Recommended Bets
Back Mathieu Debuchy to be shown a card @ 5.04/1
Back a draw @ 3.55/2

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Everton conceded six goals at Goodison last season when facing the top seven finishers in the league. All six goals came in two games, Manchester City (2-3) and Liverpool (3-3). The Toffees though managed to keep clean sheets against the next best four finishing sides Chelsea (1-0), Arsenal (3-0), Tottenham (0-0) and Manchester United (2-0). The defeat to Manchester City last season was one of only four home defeats they have suffered over the last two seasons. Everton though are without the quality of Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku doesn’t look to be fully fit at the minute.

The Gunners have a poor recent win record when facing quality opposition on the road. Last season away from home, they won one game (Tottenham 1-0), conceded 20 goals and scored only four against the top five finishers. Over the last three seasons, Arsenal have won NONE of their 12 away fixtures against sides finishing in the top five. Of course there are no guarantees that Everton will be in that top five category come May, but they are certainly a contender. The Gunners also come into this game on the back of an energy sapping stalemate in Turkey and while they are overwhelming favourites to proceed in the Champions League they may just have one eye on that game midweek.

If I was forced to pick a winner of the game I would favour Everton but I also don’t think a draw is a bad result for either side here and it has form, three of the last four meetings between them ending with the points shared. I will be backing the 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.6 with a saver for that stake on Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 (to be matched in play if necessary).