Against All Odds: Independiente and Velez to keep us entertained

The good times are back at Independiente

South America is the venue for Paul Robinson tonight as he is predicting at least three goals when Independiente take on Velez.

Independiente v Velez Sarsfield
Sunday August 24, 00:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Independiente are dining at the top table of Argentinian football once again following a one season spell in the second tier. Given that they are one of the traditional 'Big 5' in the country, their relegation in 2013 was somewhat of a shock. While they didn't win Primera B as expected, finishing third was enough to see them back in the top flight.

Despite the promotion, the Avellaneda based club have a new man in charge for this campaign and that person is former Godoy Cruz boss, Jorge Almirn. He began in excellent fashion with a 3-0 home victory over Atletico Rafaela, before falling to a 1-0 defeat at Estudiantes last weekend. 

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in here though and while there isn't much recent data to go on, there are reasons to believe that this game see goals. Firstly, their sole fixture at Estadio Libertadores de Amrica this season went over 2.5 goals and the fact that they scored all three themselves in a good sign. It is also worth considering that five of their last eight in front of their own fans in all competitions have now gone over 2.5.

Velez Sarsfield are riding high at the top of the table following two successive wins in their opening couple of games. After narrowly missing out on topping the Torneo Inicial last year, they faltered in the second semester and ended up down in sixth place.

The main reason for their decline was their defensive record as with 26 conceded, only three other teams shipped more. Things went well at the other end - 34 scored was the highest total in the entire division - and that led to their matches averaging 3.16 goals each time. Their last outing at home to Arsenal went over 2.5 and there's a good chance that this one will follow suit.

We haven't had much luck lately but that's how it goes sometimes and a winning streak is often just around the corner. This looks like a solid selection at a decent price, which is why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Independiente v Velez @ 1.574/7

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 225 pts
Returned: 227.89 pts
P/L: + 2.89 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)