Premier League Stats Review: Arsenal face another sticky end against Toffees

Everton have made Goodison Park a difficult venue for the top teams

Andrew Atherley points out the strong home stats in favour of Everton and Manchester City when they host Arsenal and Liverpool respectively...

Week two of the Premier League and already we have two big showdowns between teams with title aspirations, or at the very least hopes of getting into the Champions League.

First up on Saturday is Everton v Arsenal, which marks the first test of Gunners boss Arsene Wenger's resolve to secure better results this season against the elite teams.

Then on Monday night comes Manchester City v Liverpool when last season's top two face off in an early title-race 'six-pointer'.

Want to know how important the marginal gains can be in this type of clash? In last season's mini-league involving the top six, Manchester City were three points ahead of Liverpool (but won the title by only two) and seven ahead of Arsenal (the exact gap between them in the overall table).

Incidentally, City were themselves four points behind Chelsea in that mini-league (mainly because Jose Mourinho's side did the double over them), which indicates that Chelsea will be serious title contenders this time if they can find a little improvement against the rest of the division. The impressive opening win at Burnley was a good sign that the Blues can achieve that.

A notable factor in last season's mini-league of the top six was the high rate of home wins (60%, against 46% in all other Premier League games) and that tips the balance in favour of Everton and Manchester City this weekend.

Everton, like most top teams, built last season's best-ever Premier League points total on a strong home record and they were beaten only once by a top-six team at Goodison Park (3-2 by Manchester City). One of their best performances was the 3-0 win over Arsenal in April.

Arsenal, as everybody knows, performed badly in the big games last season and on the road against other big-six teams their record was W1 D0 L4 with a goal difference of -15. It is also worth noting that two of their most significant defeats (against the Manchester clubs) came when they had to play away after a Champions League trip (the scenario they face this week). 

Although the Gunners won at Tottenham in those circumstances, their neighbours may have been even more compromised by the shorter turnaround from a Europa League match. 

The figures indicate Everton have a good shot at the win at 2.8415/8 and the Toffees make particular appeal off 0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.021/1.

Manchester City rate good value at 1.875/6 against Liverpool, as the stats continue to say they are a team to back at home against the other elite teams. In the past four seasons their home win rate against top-six finishers was 70%, which indicates they will win at least three (possibly four) of their games in that category this season.

With due respect to Liverpool, who were unlucky 2-1 losers at City last season, at a little under evens the odds favour City backers.

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Winning teams from the opening Premier League games may be overbet this weekend, owing to the danger of drawing too many conclusions from one set of matches.

The three games of particular note this weekend are Aston Villa v Newcastle, Swansea v Burnley and Hull v Stoke, which all feature hosts who won their opening game against visitors coming off a loss.

The stats indicate last week's results are unlikely to be a good form guide.

In the five seasons since the formation of the big six, 20 teams from outside the big six have tried to follow up an opening-day win and only three have succeeded.

Even in match-ups between first day-winners and losers, just one of the 10 winners has been successful again.

Recommended Bets
Back Everton off 0 on Asian Handicap v Arsenal at 2.021/1
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool at 1.875/6