Football Bet of the Day: Avoid a Greek tragedy by backing goals

Pana's Marcus Berg is on top form

Kevin Hatchard hopes to end a frustrating week with a flourish, and he's chosen Greece for his final wager.

Levadiakos v Panathinaikos
Sunday 24th August, 19:30

The Dragon roared early, but then was slain. Despite a fifth-minute opener from yesterday's tip Atletico Goianiense, it all went a bit Pete Tong after that, as pesky Sampaio Correa hit back to win 4-2 and record their first victory in five Serie B matches. I'm not going to lie, it's been a tough week, but let's see if we can go out with a bang before I hand you back to our good friend Tobias Gourlay.

Now then, some of the successes we've managed in this column have come from identifying prices for Over 2.5 Goals that are way too big. We may just have found one as the Greek Super League gets underway this weekend.

Panathinaikos play their opening game away to Levadiakos this evening, and the overs bet is trading at a tempting 2.427/5. Let's look at the historical evidence first. Levadiakos had the second-worst defence in the Greek Super League last season, shipping 61 goals in 34 games. Obviously things do change from season to season, but that's a lot of gaps to plug in one summer. It's also worth noting there were plenty of goals in the teams' two meetings last season - Pana won 4-0 at the Levadia Municipal Stadium, and won the return in Athens 3-1.

We can take further encouragement from the clubs' recent scorelines in friendlies and competitive matches. The Shamrock (Panathinaikos, of course) have played three matches in European competition so far, and two of them have gone over 2.5 goals. A goalless draw at Standard Liege in the Champions League was followed by a 2-1 home defeat, and in the Europa League earlier this week Pana thrashed Danish outfit Midtjylland 4-1. Former Hamburg and PSV forward Marcus Berg had a day to remember, as he banged in all four goals.

We haven't got quite as much to go on with The Greens of Levadiakos, but seven of their last ten league games of last season featured at least three goals. Levadiakos also recently won 4-0 at second-division Iraklis Psachna in a pre-season friendly.

Opening rounds of a championship are always tricky, but from the evidence available, we can conclude that 2.427/5 looks too big for Over 2.5 Goals. Fingers crossed, my friends. Actually, make it toes as well.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.427/5

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 13

Points Returned: 11.5

P/L: -1.5 points