Will TJ Dillashaw defend his title at UFC 177?

Will TJ Dillashaw defend his title at UFC 177?

By Gary Wise Aug 20, 2014

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At UFC 177, new bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw defends his UFC title against Renan Barao – the man he defeated to earn it. Below, we take a look at some key factors to consider before betting on Dillashaw vs. Barao at UFC 177.

Dillashaw vs. Barao betting: First fight prelude

Before Dillashaw met then-champion Barao at UFC 173, discussion of the match focussed more on where Barao ranked in the pound-for-pound rankings than on Dillashaw’s chances of a win.

Barao entered the fight on an unthinkable 32-match win streak, was coming off his second demolition of UFC mainstay Urijah Faber and appeared unstoppable.

Dillashaw, by comparison, was 8-2, with one of his losses coming against eventual (125 lb) flyweight John Dodson in the TUF 14 finale. He appeared to be exactly what he was; a replacement (Dillashaw replaced Raphael Assuncao, who’d defeated Dillashaw in October 2013).

Betting markets reflected the perceived reality. Dillashaw closed at an amazing 8.61 to Barao’s 1.10. Needless to say, the bookmakers didn’t see what was coming next.

Beating the unbeatable Barao

In the first fight Dillashaw was dominant. Barao attacked as he always does, but Dillashaw danced, stayed out of Barao’s range and used quickness to strike with both fists and feet.

A Dillashaw haymaker felled Barao en route to a 19-7 significant strike advantage in the first round. The barrage continued throughout, with Dillashaw out-landing Barao significantly in all five rounds before knocking the champion out with a series of punches with two minutes left in the fight.

Dillashaw lost just one of the fifteen registered rounds on the judges scorecards and looked just as fresh in the fifth round as he did in the first, moving and striking until the very end.

On the other hand, Barao slowed noticeably, telegraphing his punches later on. If you watched the fight without knowing the fighters, you might have assumed Dillashaw was the 1.10 favourite going into what was ultimately one of the great upsets in MMA history.

What happened?

There were a few factors at work leading to the upset. First, bettors were judging a different fighter than they thought they were.

Dillashaw’s fight against Assuncao saw him land 29 of 101 punches and his previous fight against Hugo Viana saw Dillashaw land 21 of 44.

After the Assuncao fight, Dillashaw beat Mike Eastman by landing 117 of 232 strikes thrown, showing a different strategic approach. The wrestler had turned into a striker, and instead of going for takedowns against Barao – who’s shown a remarkable tendency to stop takedowns in his career – he brought the same approach as he did against Eastman.

Dillashaw landed 140 strikes of the 309 thrown. To put that in context he landed a strike every 11 seconds – a remarkable rate to maintain for 23 minutes.

Barao wasn’t ready for the onslaught. No UFC fighter before Dillashaw had ever thrown more than 206 strikes against him. It was a lot to absorb for a fighter who’d fought less than four months earlier, a short turnaround that teammate Marlon Sandro blamed for Barao coming out flat.

Post-fight speculation blamed a tough weight cut for Barao may have also contributed to his sluggish appearance, and there are those who suggested Barao may have taken his training easy, looking past what he thought was an inferior fighter.

Questions for the rematch

There are a lot of questions heading into the rematch; can Dillashaw duplicate his first performance? Can his strategy work if Barao is at full fight readiness? With a full camp to prepare for Dillashaw, will Barao come in with a better game plan? Did the weight cut and turnaround hinder Barao in the first time? Will the shock of a loss renew Barao’s motivation, or will the potential damage to his confidence have an effect?

Barao opened at 2.38 to Dillashaw’s 1.53, but the market has moved their prices closer together. In a fight with this many questions, market movement is going to go a long way in determining where the true value lies. Keep an eye on the UFC’s lead-up events and the fight’s lines to look for a moment where the market moves opposite to your inclinations.

See the latest UFC 177 odds here.

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