Rio Ave coach Nuno Santo has moved on, but good habits remain
After making a profit from last season's Europa League, Kevin Hatchard is back to pick out some of his best bets from the playoff round...
Elfsborg v Rio Ave
Thursday August 21, 18:00
Match Odds: Elfsborg 2.245/4, Rio Ave 3.613/5, the draw 3.412/5
Rio Ave have developed a reputation for being cup specialists in the last 12 months. Last season they reached the finals of the Portuguese Cup and the League Cup, losing both finals to Benfica. They must be sick of the sight of Jorge Jesus' Eagles, because they also lost to them on penalties in this season's Portuguese Super Cup after a goalless draw.
Although Rio Ave have lost their coach Nuno Santo to Valencia, they appear to have retained their knack for getting good cup results. In the previous qualifying round they won 1-0 at Swedish side IFK Gothenburg, before drawing the return leg 0-0. Indeed, Rio Ave are yet to concede a single goal this season, having racked up four consecutive clean sheets.
It's back to Sweden for the playoff round, and an Elfsborg side that is sitting third in the Allsvenskan. Fans of The Elegants have had some thrills and spills already in this competition - FH were despatched 5-3 on aggregate, but in the round before that penalties were needed to see off Inter Baki, after the Azerbaijan side won the first leg 1-0 in Sweden.
Elfsborg have struggled for consistency in the last couple of months, winning just six of their last 13 games, and this matchup looks much more even to me than the market suggests. Backing Rio Ave Draw No Bet at 2.568/5 seems sensible.
Recommended Bet
Back Rio Ave Draw No Bet at 2.568/5
Lyon vs Astra Giurgiu
Thursday August 21, 20:00
Match Odds: Lyon 1.491/2, Astra 6.86/1, the draw 4.216/5
Lyon are still finding their feet under new coach Hubert Fournier, after Remi Garde stepped down in the summer. Les Gones came through the previous qualifying round with panache, winning 4-1 at Mlada Boleslav before beating their Czech opponents 2-1 in the return. However, while the attacking side of things is working well (Lyon have scored at least twice in all four of their matches), the weekend's 2-1 defeat at Toulouse showed there is still lots of work to be done on the defence. You could have driven a tank through the gap in Lyon's defence for Toulouse's opener.
Romanian outfit Astra Giurgiu have every reason to be confident that they can cause another upset, having dumped out Slovan Liberec 6-2 on aggregate in the previous round. The Ploiesti-based side have also made a fine start domestically, winning three of their four league matches to sit third in the standings. They have rattled in 20 goals in eight games in all competitions, and they will fancy scoring at least one away goal.
Even though it's a first leg, I'm expecting fireworks, so get on the overs at 1.845/6.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.845/6
FK Aktobe v Legia Warsaw
Thursday August 21, 16:00
Match Odds: Aktobe 3.39/4, Legia Warsaw 2.47/5, the draw 3.412/5
There can be few football fans, apart from those of the Celtic persuasion, who didn't feel sorry for Legia Warsaw as they were cast out of the Champions League on a technicality. Having thoroughly tanned Celtic's hides over two legs, the inexplicable fielding of an ineligible player saw them eliminated.
Redemption is now available for Henning Berg's men, a chance to vent their frustration. Legia not only beat Celtic 6-1 on aggregate on the pitch, but they have also taken ten points from five games in the Polish Ekstraklasa, scoring a league-high 12 goals in the process.
Standing between Legia and the group stage are Kazakh table-toppers Aktobe. Although they are no pushovers (they beat Dinamo Tblisi in a Champions League qualifying tie) they actually aren't in very good form, having won just one of their last five games. If Legia can play anywhere near as well as they played against Celtic, then they are surely overpriced for the win at 2.47/5.
Recommended Bet
Back Legia Warsaw to win at 2.47/5
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