Form or Fatigue – how do ATP players fare after reaching a final the previous week?

Form or Fatigue – how do ATP players fare after reaching a final the previous week?

By Dan Weston Aug 19, 2014

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The ATP circuit is long and arduous – 64 tournaments last year in 10 months – so managing fatigue is an important skill for all players. This tennis betting article assesses an aspect of that fatigue – how players perform in the immediate week following a final.

To win a tennis tournament, a player must win between four and seven matches, usually within the space of a week. What bettors must answer is how this affects the player? Are they now physically and mentally tired, compared to a player who was eliminated in the early rounds of an event, or will their momentum and form ensure they can continue their run?

What bettors should also be aware of is a player’s schedule is usually determined in advance. Therefore bettors must be aware of which players have entered back-to-back events. For instance a player, who reaches the final in the first tournament, will have to rush to the next event, with little preparation for the conditions. Some players have been known to withdraw, but with financial penalties in place for players who withdraw at a short notice, this is becoming more unlikely.

Finalists previous week therefore fly to the tournament and then play early the next morning. Bettors can struggle to predict how these players will perform, although there are metrics that bettors can use to make an assessment of their chances.

For instance a player with a poor deciding set record – Julien Benneteau, for example – may suffer from fitness issues, and playing a tournament after reaching a final the week before might be a step too far for them.

Bettors can also look at previous records to make a judgement – Fabio Fognini, for instance, has reached consecutive finals in both 2013 and 2014, so fitness would not be a likely issue for the Italian.

There have been several other notable examples of players doing well this year in consecutive weeks – Marin Cilic reached three finals in consecutive weeks, at Zagreb, Rotterdam, and Delray Beach.  David Goffin then went one better by winning an incredible four tournaments in a row, three on the Challenger Tour and then the Kitzbuhel 250 after he received a wild card.

In fact, in 2014, six players have reached finals in two consecutive weeks – the aforementioned Fognini, Cilic and Goffin, as well as Kevin Anderson (Delray Beach and Acapulco), Ivo Karlovic (Newport and Bogota) and Feliciano Lopez (Queens and Eastbourne).  Furthermore, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez reached the quarter-finals of the Monte Carlo Masters, with two wins priced over 4.00, after winning the Casablanca 250, while after winning the Nice 250, Ernests Gulbis followed this up with a French Open semi-final.

Having read this far readers would be forgiven for assuming that it was virtually a given that players follow up a successful tournament with a good run the subsequent week. The following table illustrates the 2014 results for ATP finalists playing a first round match in the immediate week after their final.  A hypothetical 100 bet was placed on each player, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.  Only matches with at least one set completed were used in the sample:

<1.25

1.26-1.50

1.51-2.00

2.01-2.99

3.00+

Overall

Matches

21

11

8

8

3

51

W/L

19

9

8

0

1

37

Win %

90.5

81.8

100.0

0.0

33.3

72.5

P/L

48

115

558

-800

834

755

ROI

2.29

10.45

69.75

-100.00

278.00

14.80

Understandably, sample size isn’t huge for this scenario.  Most top players are quite sparing with their activities and don’t schedule tournaments in consecutive weeks.  However, with there being 30 different winners in 2014, and a combined 50 finalists, many eleite players have made an ATP final this year.

What is immediately apparent is the success of favourites in this scenario – out of a combined 40 matches, 36 were won by finalists from the previous week (90% success ratio). This generated profits of 721, an 18.0% return of investment.

Only one underdog managed to win after reaching the final in the previous week – Ivo Karlovic. The big-serving Croat achieved a shock win priced at 11.343 against Grigor Dimitrov in the first round of the French Open, after reaching the final of Dusseldorf the previous week.

This somewhat skewed the sample of results with underdogs generating a combined profit of 34 from 11 matches, despite 10 out of the 11 losing from the sample.

The following table illustrate the 2014 results for ATP finalists playing all matches in the immediate week after their final.  A hypothetical 100 bet was placed on each player, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.  Only matches with at least one set completed were used in the sample:

<1.25

1.26-1.50

1.51-2.00

2.01-2.99

3.00+

Overall

Matches

41

26

23

26

16

132

W/L

37

20

18

8

4

73

Win %

90.2

76.9

78.3

30.8

25.0

65.9

P/L

88

108

711

-612

769

1064

ROI

2.15

4.15

30.91

-23.54

48.06

8.06

The sample size was a little better in this second scenario with 132 matches sampled.

Interestingly, the same conclusions could be drawn from this sample – favourites obtain much better results in this scenario than underdogs. Out of 90 matches, 75 were won by favourites, generating superb hypothetical profits of 907 (ROI of 10%). Underdogs – thanks to the previously mentioned success of Karlovic against Dimitrov, recorded a slight profit, although their results would have been very poor if Karlovic had been defeated.

Overall, a very strong 8.06% return on investment was recorded, and for any scenario, let alone a blind-backed one, this is magnificent.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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