Sean Calvert: The five outsiders to follow at the US Open

Ferrer's record in majors is exemplary in recent times

The final slam of the tennis season in just days away and with doubts over the favourites Sean Calvert runs the rule over the best value US Open outsiders...

The US Open draw is only a matter of days away and with the market leaders all having varying degrees of doubt over them I've taken a look at the outsiders in an attempt to find the best back-to-lays.

Looking at the head of the market on Monday we had an outright favourite who has struggled badly in the US Open Series; a 33-year-old second favourite who hasn't made the final here since 2009; a third favourite who hasn't beaten a top-10 player since Wimbledon 2013; and a fourth favourite with a dodgy wrist who hasn't played at all since June 23.

Then we had the least surprising news of the week on Monday when Rafa Nadal pulled out with his bad wrist, thereby promoting a player who was last seen capitulating to Julien Benneteau to fourth favourite.

In short, it's the most open looking Open in recent memory and there has to be opportunities for the second tier and perhaps lower this time around, where before there has been little chance in recent majors.

First in the queue probably should be be those that have won Masters 1000s, as no player apart from the also absent Juan Martin Del Potro and struggling Stan Wawrinka has won a major without one in recent times.

So, that brings Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, and Nikolay Davydenko (assuming he hasn't retired), into the equation - in theory.

Of these I actually have a sneaking regard for Robredo at a massive 500.0499/1 as a back to lay shout, with the Spaniard in fine form at the moment, having shown up well in Toronto and Cincy, where his win over Novak Djokovic won't have done the confidence any harm.

Tommy made the last eight here a year ago, beating Roger Federer in straight sets on the way and although it would be a miracle if he won it he could certainly match last year's result and maybe better it with a good draw.

He also made the fourth round in Melbourne before losing a tight one to eventual champion Wawrinka and with doubts about the major contenders Djokovic is keeping the rags' prices perhaps artificially high.

His loss to Nicolas Mahut in Winston-Salem yesterday was wholly predictable given Robredo's record just ahead of majors and he might surprise a few this fortnight.

Tsonga is too short at 23.022/1 after his Toronto win that came out of nowhere and while I cannot see Ferrer winning a major either he could easily make the quarters or semis and 90.089/1 seems a decent price on the Spaniard with a view to a lay.

Ferrer has made at least the quarter finals or better in 10 of his last 11 majors on all surfaces, with this year's Wimbledon being the exception and if he avoids Federer in the draw and Djokovic fails again that price might look big by week two.

Berdych is another, who despite his poor current form, could easily bring it back for a major, but I just prefer Ferrer's 90.089/1 over Tomas' 90.089/1 as a back to lay.

Injuries look to have scuppered the chances of Richard Gasquet, Alex Dolgopolov, Nick Kyrgios, Tommy Haas, Nicolas Almagro and Kei Nishikori, but John Isner is interesting if he gets a good draw and doesn't spend too much energy going four and five sets in week one.

The big man made the last eight here three years ago and is due a run in New York again, but what about Vasek Pospisil also at a whopping 700.0699/1?

The Canadian is coming back to form after injury and at a huge price he could go as far as his slightly questionable fitness allows him to.

I'll assess the chances of the 'pretenders' as I like to call them later in the week after the draw, but another one for consideration has to be Bernard Tomic.

The controversial Aussie plays when he feels like it and won't win it, but he has shown some signs of form lately and there won't be too many in the draw that Tomic feels he can't beat now.

Bernie has been much too short in recent times in majors, but at a more realistic 550549/1 this former Wimbledon quarter finalist has, frankly, embarrassed himself with results and performances at this slam, but that will change at some point.

For inspiration, Tomic just needs to look at another slam underachiever in Ernests Gulbis, who made the semis of the French Open this season six years and 22 majors after his previous quarter final - 21 of which he didn't better the second round in.

Could Ernie push on now and make a second major semi final of the season?

It's quite possible and although on current form it seems doubtful it could be that Gulbis is saving what's left of his energy for the year for New York, which would make his price of 120.0119/1 seem very decent.

It's been rare in recent years that anyone outside the top four and maybe a couple of others could be seen as having a realistic chance to win a slam or even a Masters 1000, but things look to be changing and there are some tempting options available.

US Open back-to-lay pre-draw shortlist

Robredo at 500.0499/1
Pospisil at 700.0699/1
Ferrer at 90.089/1
Isner at 180.0179/1
Tomic at 550.0549/1