Factors to consider when betting the 2014 WSOP Main Event final table

Factors to consider when betting the 2014 WSOP Main Event final table

By Gary Wise Aug 20, 2014

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On November 10th, 2014, the final nine survivors of poker’s toughest gauntlet – the World Series of Poker Main Event – will gather to play for poker’s world championship. This 2014 WSOP betting preview looks at the factors you should consider before choosing who to bet on.

What is the World Series of Poker Main Event?

Every year since 1970, the best poker players in the world have gathered to play the WSOP Main Event, a tournament (since 1971) with a $10,000 entry fee (since 1972). The winner is determined to be poker’s world champion.

While the event’s origins saw single-digit fields, it’s since grown to a world-shattering size. The 2014 version attracted 6,683 runners and played seven 12-hour days of poker in order to whittle its number down to the nine players remaining.

The 2014 WSOP Main Event final table players

The nine remaining players represent six nations, with the host United States the only country with more than one citizen remaining:

Name

Number of Chips (Percentage of Total)

WSOP Bracelets

WSOP Cashes

WSOP Earnings

Jorryt van Hoof

38,375,000 (19.1%)

0

3

$27,956

Felix Stephensen

32,775,000 (16.3%)

0

0

0

Mark Newhouse

26,000,000 (13.0%)

0

8

$906.093

Andoni Larrabe

22,550,000 (11.2%)

0

3

$20,068

Dan Sindelar

21,200,000 (10.6%)

0

17

$149,991

William Pappaconstantinou

17,500,000 (8.7%)

0

0

0

William Tonking

15,050,000 (7.5%)

0

3

$14,701

Martin Jacobson

14,900,000 (7.4%)

0

13

$1,204,983

Bruno Politano

12,125,000 (6.0%)

0

3

$25,404

As their WSOP earnings suggest, Newhouse and Jacobson are the names that stand out. Newhouse – read how you should value Newhouse here – has managed the amazing feat of two consecutive Main Event final tables in a row (the first player to do this in ten years and the first since the Main Event exploded into a 6,000-player annually affair), while Jacobsen finished sixth last year in the $111,111 buy-in One Drop High Roller event.

Beware the chip leader

Generally speaking, the starting point for calculating a player’s chances of winning a tournament is the percentage they have of the chips in play. By this logic, leader Jorryt van Hoof has to be the favourite heading into the finale with a substantial lead. Recent WSOP Main Event results, however, show us that entering with that lead is no sure thing.

Year

Final table chip leader

% of starting chips

Finish

Eventual winner

Final table chip leader

2004

Greg “Fossilman” Raymer

32.3%

1st

Raymer

1st

2005

Aaron Kanter

19.1%

4th

Hachem

6th

2006

Jamie Gold

28.8%

1st

Gold

1st

2007

Philip Hilm

17.3%

9th

Yang

9th

2008

Dennis Philips

18.9%

3rd

Eastgate

4th

2009

Darvin Moon

31.3%

2nd

Cada

5th

2010

Jonathan Duhamel

29.6%

1st

Duhamel

1st

2011

Martin Staszko

19.1%

2nd

Heinz

7th

2012

Jesse Sylvia

22.2%

2nd

Merson

3rd

2013

JC Tran

19.9%

5th

Reiss

5th

In the decade since the main event’s numbers explosion, just 3 of the 10 chipleaders at the start of the final table have gone on to win. Since the WSOP moved to the format that sees a months-long delay between the body of the tournament and the final table, in 2008, it’s even worse; just one of six opening chip leaders has held on for the victory, and none of the others even manage to come runner-up. Even Jonathan Duhamel, the lone exception, had to get lucky in his tournament’s biggest hand in order to avoid an epic crash.

At present, van Hoof’s odds to win are at 4.29, implying a probability of 23.1%. An experienced high-stakes cash game player, he may be enjoying the benefits of those in the know believing his skill gives him an advantage beyond that bestowed by the chips. However, if you believe the players are roughly equal in ability, you’ll stay away unless the market evens out.

A short-stack advantage?

As the chipleader chart above shows us, only one short stack at the start of the final table – in the modern era – has come back to win the championship. Despite those long odds, there’s a reason to hope this time around.

While 6% of the chips in play may not seem like a lot, it’s something of a best-case scenario for Bruno Politano. In 2013, three players began the final table with a smaller percentage of the chips, and Politano’s stack represents over 30 big blinds, giving him more time than a small stack customarily gets in these situations.

Politano, Jacobson and William Tonking should all be looking for opportunities to double up, and with more time than usual to find them, if successful, it could turn them into phenomenal values.

Intangibles

The last question you should ask yourself prior to betting on one of these players is how you feel they’ll adapt to the unusual situation of being at the final table. The lights and the cameras represent something bigger; an international audience watching players lives change in front of them. That kind of pressure cooker can get to the most resolute players.

Experience may be key in making those adjustments. We spoke to William Pappaconstantinou, inexperienced on poker’s big stage by his own admission (though he is a nine time foosball world champion) and he wasn’t shy about the difficulties he faces.

“In preparation, I’m still not sure if I’m going about it the right way… I didn’t realize what this would be. I never expected to be in this situation, so I never thought about it to be honest.”

He went on to say “We get to study one another. I’m unknown, so that’s good for me, but the four months break takes the momentum away. I don’t see the point of a coach when we’re going to be able to see how one another play. If I play a hand and I bluff, I might as well show it since they’ll all know in 10 minutes. Now that I can see their hands, I’ll focus more on that element and adjusting at the final table.”

He continued “I don’t like people watching me play poker. They were there during the tournament though, and I didn’t mind it much. We’ve all gone through the tournament, so it may not bother us much.”

Whether Pappaconstantinou is right on that last point is up for you to decide, and the answer may be key to your profiting on his (or others’) potential windfall.

Click here to see the latest 2014 WSOP odds.

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