Maidana not expected to upset the odds against Mayweather

Maidana not expected to upset the odds against Mayweather

By Calum Ward Aug 19, 2014

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Floyd Mayweather is the overwhelming favourite with Pinnacle Sports to repeat his victory over Marcos Maidana when they meet inside the MGM Grand on September 13th. Read our Mayweather vs. Maidana II betting preview before placing your bets.

Floyd Mayweather vs. Marcos Maidana fight statistics

Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Name

Marcos Maidana

37

Age

31

Michigan, U.S.

Birthplace

Sante Fe, Argentina

5ft 8” (1.73m)

Height

5ft 7” (1.70m)

72” (183cm)

Reach

69” (175cm)

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

46-0-0 (26 wins by KO)

Career Record

35-0-4 (31 wins by KO)

Mayweather vs. Maidana I

The first time the pair met in May, Floyd “Pretty Boy” Mayweather defeated Marcos Maidana on points via a majority decision. The three judges scored the fight 114-114, 116-112 and 117-111, ensuring “Pretty Boy” extended his career record to 46-0-0.

However, for the second fight in a row, Mayweather left the ring with only a majority decision in his favour. This time, the scores reflected the reality as Maidana gave him the toughest fight since Miguel Cotto.

At the official fight weigh-in bettors should be aware that Mayweather hit the scales at 146lbs, while Maidana was at 146lbs. However, on fight night, Maidana rehydrated to 165 pounds – nearly 20lbs heavier – in an attempt to land bigger shots.

Just like Maidana had done against Adrien Broner, the Argentinian flew at Mayweather from the off in an attempt to blast him out early. His game plan appeared to be working as Mayweather looked uncomfortable with the aggressive approach, and was cut in the fourth round. However, the longer the fight went on, the more Mayweather dealt with the threat and was able to counter and land the more accurate punches.

The fight statistics showed Maidana landed 221 of 858 punches (26% accuracy) – the most landed by any fighter against Mayweather.  However, Mayweather still landed more punches (230) and had a much better accuracy (54%).  This was one of the toughest tests of Mayweather’s professional career to date, making the upcoming rematch in September 2014 a mouth-watering prospect.

Mayweather vs. Maidana odds movement 

Mayweather opened the first fight as the huge 1.083 favourite, and closed at 1.115 – giving him an implied probability of 89.69% to win. Maidana in comparison dropped from 9.120 to 6.660 – a 15.02% chance of victory – on the day of the fight, which suggests the market, felt he was undervalued when the odds were first posted.

Interestingly despite the nature of the first bout, the odds have Mayweather as the current 1.121* favourite – giving him an 89.21% chance of winning – while the market suggests Maidana has a 14.29% (7.000*) chance of victory.

Have the bookmakers undervalued Maidana again, or do they believe, now Mayweather has been in the ring with the Argentinian, he will have a game plan from the off, rather than taking four rounds to adapt, like the first fight?

Is Floyd Mayweather unbeatable?

No one can argue that Mayweather has achieved his greatness through luck alone – exceptional talent has helped him achieve his unblemished 46-0-0 record. However, a 100% career win record is extremely rare – only three fighters (Lopez, Marciano & Calzaghe) who fought in more than 35 professional fights have finished undefeated. Therefore to go unbeaten for so long, luck and chance have more than likely favoured Mayweather along the way.

Perhaps the most evident case where luck played a part in ensuring Mayweather remained undefeated was when he fought Jose Luis Castillo at the MGM Grand, when he was 27-0-0 at the time. After 12 rounds, Castillo believed he had won, and so did the majority of the boxing community. When the unanimous decision was announced in Mayweather’s favour, debate raged. Even renowned boxing judge Harold Lederman scored the fight at 115-111 for Castillo. Luck was evidently on Mayweather’s side that night, but is it beginning to run out?

Many argue that Mayweather has combined very selective matchmaking and a cautious boxing style to ensure he protects his unbeaten record. At the age of 37 and with the elusive 50-0-0 record in his sights, perhaps selecting a rematch against a man he has already beaten – rather than fighting Amir Khan or Manny Pacquiao – is Mayweather’s own way of increasing the probability of him finishing his career undefeated.

Home Advantage

Mayweather has been fighting at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for over 14 years. This will be his 14th appearance at the famous arena – marking 10 fights in a row.  Maidana, on the other hand, has only fought there 3 times (losing only once, in the previous bout), with most of his fights taking place in his native Argentina.

Bettors could be forgiven for thinking the partisan American crowd would favour Mayweather. However, at July’s press conference the crowd booed the champion and chanted the Argentinian’s name. Mayweather appeared unnerved and claimed he would knockout Maidana, and his trainer Robert Garcia, on the same night.

With the majority of fans appearing to favour Maidana, bettors should consider how this could affect the usually unflappable Mayweather? If he becomes emotionally engaged, will he be looking for a knockout and therefore leave himself more open than usual, for the big hitting Argentinian to take advantage?

Glove argument rages on

The first fight build-up was controversial, which revolved around the gloves Maidana had selected for the fight, and the second seems very much the same.

Before any professional fight the opponent and the boxing commission must approve the gloves used by each boxer.  On the eve of the first bout Mayweather stated he was unwilling to fight the Argentinian if he wore his custom-made gloves. The Mayweather camp argued there was too much weight in the wrist area and not enough padding on the knuckles.

Just several hours before the fight, Maidana agreed to wear stock black-and-yellow Everlast gloves.

In the build up to the second fight, the gloves Maidana will wear has once more been fiercely-contested. It now appears the glove debate will rage on until both enter the ring on September 13th.

The Boxer vs. The Fighter

Mayweather vs. Maidana betting will also be available via the over/under market for total rounds. This offering is an interesting market for bettors, especially when you look at the contrasting styles of both fighters. Mayweather’s technical prowess is sensational – he finds a way of beating his opponents by analysing them in the opening rounds, and then employing the tactics required to win.

Maidana, on the other hand, is more forceful and throws a remarkable volume of punches from the opening bell, as he looks to land a knockout blow early.

Mayweather’s (28 fights) experience in 12 round fights is double that of Maidana (14 fights).  What’s interesting is that 16 of Mayweather’s fights have gone the distance; with his last two knockouts coming against Victor Ortiz – controversially – in 2011 and Ricky Hatton in 2007. This highlights that either Mayweather doesn’t have the punching power to knockout opponents anymore, or more likely, his cautious style favours a points-win.

Maidana in comparison has won eight of his 11 wins by knockout, all of which have come earlier than the ninth round. However, like the first bout, when the fight has gone the distance, Maidana has lost 50% of his fights (against Kotelnik, Khan and Mayweather), so expect him to come out swinging from round one.

Before betting on the winner of Mayweather vs. Maidana II, bettors should consider the factors highlighted in this article. Has Mayweather become too emotionally engaged, in turn creating more opportunity for the Argentinian to land a knockout blow himself, or will he have the perfect plan for Maidana, given he has already gone the distance with him?

Click here to see the latest Mayweather vs. Maidana II boxing odds.

*Odds subject to change

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