пятница, 22 августа 2014 г.

La Liga Betting: Big three to start as they'll go on

Athletic Support: There are reasons to believe Bilbao will make the most of their trip to Malaga

It's a bumper weekend to start the La Liga season and Tobias Gourlay's waded through no less than eight televised games to deliver his best bets

The advent of Sky Sports 5 means more televised games from Spain this season, so these previews need to be snappier than ever. Right now, that's no bad thing because the early rounds of the season arrive with a lot of questions about new signings and new coaches, and without a recent form guide. Accordingly, this column will be keeping its stakes low for a few weeks. This time, we're staking a total of four points across eight games.

Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Malaga 2.942/1 Athletic 2.6613/8 draw 3.412/5

Athletic Bilbao went to Italy this week and turned in a good performance to draw the first leg of a Champions League playoff 1-1 with Napoli. At this stage in the campaign, tiredness should not a problem and an extra competitive outing can sharpen the focus.

Ernesto Valverde has a full squad to choose from this weekend. Last term his men went W7-D4-L2 away to teams who finished outside the top seven. The defeats came early in the season, so you might say they're unbeaten in 10 on the road to outfits of a similar standard to Malaga, who came home 11th and have not obviously been strengthened by the summer transfer season.

Javi Gracia has replaced Bernd Schuster in Malaga's hot seat, but might not immediately improve last season's W3-D1-L6 record at home to top-ten finishers.

Recommended Bet
1pt - Back Athletic Bilbao Draw No Bet @ 1.9110/11

Sevilla v Valencia
Saturday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Sevilla 2.111/10 Valencia 3.953/1 draw 3.65n/a

This is a fine example of a game involving two sides for which much has changed since the end of last term.

Sevilla have sold their captain and best player, Ivan Rakitic, to Barcelona. Iago Aspas was once a fine player for Celta Vigo, but Liverpool fans might take a different view on how he might fare as Rakitic's replacement.

Meanwhile there has been root-and-branch reform at Valencia. The coach (Nuno) and the owners (TBC) are new, and once important players (Banega, Bernat, Ricardo Costa, Mathieu) have been moved on.

Just one angle for you: since Unai Emery took over, 23/29 of Sevilla's games at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan have thrown up three goals or more. 

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9520/21

Almeria v Espanyol
Saturday 22:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Almeria 2.89/5 Espanyol 2.915/8 draw 3.3512/5

Javier Aguirre has gone to coach Japan, so Espanyol have promoted B-team coach Sergio Gonzalez. Most of the faces will be familiar to him from the other side of the training ground as the Parakeets have done little in the transfer market apart from loan Thievy Bifouma to this weekend's opponents.

It's not clear the Frenchman will be fit or allowed to start against his old club, so expect another new signing, Tomer Hemed, up front. The performance at the other end will be interesting too: do we get the Almeria that conceded 15 in its first seven home games of last season? Or the one that then kept five straight clean sheets? Or the one that conceded 16 in its next six at the Juegos del Mediterraneo?

We're inclined to keep our powder dry until we know more.

Eibar v Real Sociedad
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Eibar 3.711/4 Sociedad 2.285/4 draw 3.412/5

Two years ago, Eibar were preparing for a Segunda B game. The arrival of the Basque Country's third team into the top flight is a remarkable story, but the football hasn't always been that great.

Gaizka Garitano's men won the Segunda Division with its best defence (12 goals conceded in 21 home games). The personnel has changed a bit - loanees have come and gone, some of them to and from this weekend's local opponents - but the current lot might just be able to contain a Sociedad side that has lost Antoine Griezmann and might have to do without Carlos Vela on Sunday. Between them, those two scored over half of the team's league goals in 2013/14.

Recommended Bet
0.25pts - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.758/11

Barcelona v Elche
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Barcelona 1.111/9 Elche 30.029/1 draw 14.013/1

Much has changed at Barcelona over the last few months, as we've noted elsewhere, but quite a few summer signings are unavailable for Luis Enrique's first game in charge.

Luis Suarez, Thomas Vermaelen and Marc-Andre ter Stegen join Neymar in sitting this one out.

Ivan Rakitic and Jeremy Mathieu will probably make their debuts, however. Barcelona were 6-0 up at half-time of their first game of last season and Elche, who conceded nine unanswered goals at the top three last term, might fear something similar.

In total seven of their 11 away defeats were by margins of two goals or more. 

Recommended Bet
0.25pts - Back Barcelona -2.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.855/6

Levante v Villarreal
Sunday 22:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Levante 3.8514/5 Villarreal 2.186/5 draw 3.412/5

Villarreal won this fixture 3-0 last season but - aside from some optimism about the signings of Denis Cheryshev from Real Madrid and Javier Espinosa from Barcelona - there's little else to support their win price this time around. After winning their first couple on the road a year ago, the Yellow Submarine only won another 6/17.

Levante kept clean sheets in 10/19 at the Ciutat de Valencia and, although 'keeper Keylor Navas has gone to Real Madrid, a small bet on them to avoid defeat is our only interest in Sunday's game.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Home or Draw Double Chance @ 1.84/5

Real Madrid v Cordoba
Monday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Real 1.081/12 Cordoba 46.045/1 draw 17.016/1

After more than four decades away, Cordoba are back in the Spanish top flight. It feels like the same amount of time since anyone set eyes on Raul Bravo, but he's just one of the old friends in Albert Ferrer's squad. Xisco is the other.

The Andalusians made it here despite finishing their last Segunda Division season in seventh, having scored just 46 times in 42 games (19 in 21 on the road).

Last season Carlo Ancelotti's Real shipped a total of just three goals in 12 home games against the teams who finished ninth and below. They won all 12, of course, and you might find value in backing the Win To Nil, if it goes beyond 1.84/5 when the market opens.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Real Madrid Win To Nil @ 1.84/5

Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid
Monday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Rayo 7.26/1 Atletico 1.558/15 draw 4.47/2

Rayo Vallecano won this fixture 2-1 a couple of seasons ago. Since returning to La Liga in 2011, however, they have met one of last season's top three on 17 other occasions (home and away) and lost every single time.

In 15 of those 17 games, they have also been behind at half-time, but that doesn't tally with the wider Atletico trend towards Draw/Win double results away from home.

After a two-legged Super Cup with city rivals Real, the champions should be much closer to full match fitness and can begin their title defence with a win. 

Recommended Bet
1pt - Back Atletico Madrid @ 1.558/15

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