Ipswich v Norwich: Back the draw in big derby clash

Mick McCarthy will desperately want to avoid defeat in Saturday's big derby

Saturday's televised Championship game is the first East Anglian derby for three years and Andy Tongue says both sides will want to avoid defeat at all costs...

Ipswich v Norwich
Saturday 23 August, 12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Ipswich

This is the match that everyone in East Anglia was looking out for when the fixtures were released. After a three-year hiatus the derby is back and home fans will be desperate for their side to avenge a humiliating 5-1 defeat in April 2011 as the triumphant Canaries marched towards the Premier League. After an encouraging end to last season, expectations around Portman Road are for another successful campaign in and around the play-off spots.

An impressive 2-1 win over Fulham on the first day of the season was followed by a slightly unlucky defeat at Reading, where the visitors enjoyed the better of the game, then a battling 2-2 draw at Birmingham on Tuesday night with Scottish international Christophe Berra twice equalising for the visitors - the second in injury time. There was also a 1-0 defeat at the hands of League Two Crawley in the Capital One Cup, admittedly with a weakened side out.

McCarthy will be slightly concerned that his men haven't managed a clean sheet in four games thus far and there would be no better time for a first one of the season than against their bitter rivals.

Norwich

After a disappointing defeat at Wolves on the opening weekend of the season, Neil Adams' side bounced back with two home wins in four days to give their supporters confidence that they have the ability to challenge for promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking. A comfortable 3-0 win over Watford (although the game's key moment came in the 2nd minute when the visitors were reduced to ten men) was followed by a hard-fought 3-1 triumph against Blackburn, a side fancied by many to do well this season.

It's been a busy week at Carrow Road with striker Cameron Jerome arriving from Stoke and former Aston Villa defender Carlos Cuellar signing a year's deal. Both bring valuable top-flight experience and should be in contention to go straight into the squad for Saturday's game.

Going the other way was Dutch international midfielder Leroy Fer, who left for QPR in a deal worth around 8 million. Although his quality will certainly be missed, Adams will have been expecting him to join a Premier League side by August 31 so it's not quite the blow it might have been. The Canaries are missing a few players with Jonny Howson and Gary Hooper both still injured, while defender Martin Olsson is suspended following his push on referee Simon Hooper after being sent-off at Molineux.

Match Odds

The market makes Norwich slight favourite here, which I would agree with given I have them finishing in the top six this season with the home outfit most likely to end up in sixth to tenth places again. However, a key point for me when considering local derbies - especially ones as intense as this - is that avoiding defeat is the primary aim. 

Winning is an added bonus but losing is simply unthinkable. That means the draw should always be a first point of call for the punter and in this case with both sides having made promising enough starts to the campaign, it's the logical bet here. Home advantage for Town should counter the visitors' extra top-flight quality nicely and an even encounter is in prospect here.

Both Teams to Score

As highlighted above, Ipswich haven't kept a clean sheet yet this season and Norwich have come nicely into form, scoring six times in their two home wins over the past seven days. This derby clash also has strong goalscoring trends - both sides have scored in eight of the last nine fixtures and there have been 18 goals in the last four at Portman Road.

Although the low scoring trend in these Saturday lunchtime kick-offs is something I've highlighted previously, derbies are the games which should be considered the exception to this rule with the passionate atmosphere able to galvanise players to overcame the unusual early start.

To Score

Norwich striker Lewis Grabban wasn't able to get off the mark for his new club (and us!) at Wolves on the first day of the season but he didn't waste any time in doing so afterwards - scoring three times in the two wins this week. I was very taken with his composure and finishing ability at Bournemouth last season and think he'll score 20 goals for the Canaries this year, injuries permitting. Those strikes have shown the Norwich faithful what he can do and a goal in the derby would ensure he becomes a firm favourite of theirs.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw at 3.3512/5
Back Both Teams to Score at 1.84/5
Back Lewis Grabban to score at any time at the best available price

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 12pts
Returned: 15.81pts
P/L: +3.81pts

* 2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets