Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid: The only way is unders

Atletico Madrid centre back Diego Godin marries clean-sheet efficiency with big-match goalscoring prowess

Michael Lintorn can't believe that under 2.5 goals is available at 2.226/5 in the Supercopa de Espana first leg...

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday, 22:00
Live on Sky Sports 5

With its two-legged format, the Supercopa de Espana presents the previous season's league and cup winners an opportunity to collide on an even footing.

It also forces them to get uncomfortably overfamiliar. Last year's opponents Barcelona and Atletico Madrid wound up clashing six times in 2013/14, as did Barcelona and Real Madrid in 2012/13 and 2011/12. This time, it's over to the final combination of Spain's big three: Atletico and Real.

While it is the neighbours' first ever Supercopa meeting, it doesn't feel a huge novelty after five games in 2013/14. The derby's appeal hasn't faded since the fixture became more common though, with the opposite true because this is the most competitive the rivalry has been for decades.

Match Odds: Real Madrid 1.645/8, Atletico Madrid 6.05/1, The Draw 4.47/2

There are three reasons to fancy Real Madrid. The first was their spirit-crushing reassertion of head-to-head authority in beating Atletico home and away in a Copa del Rey semi-final then conquering them in extra time in the Champions League final, following successive setbacks in 2013.

Another is that Real are better than last term due to signing Keylor Navas, Toni Kroos and James Rodriguez, whereas Atletico's strength is unclear after replacing Thibaut Courtois, Filipe Luis, David Villa and Diego Costa with Moya, Cristian Ansaldi, Antoine Griezmann and Mario Mandzukic.

The other ace up the hosts' sleeve is that they returned to competitive action last week with their 2-0 UEFA Super Cup victory over Sevilla, whereas this is Diego Simeone's side's first legitimate test.

However, this writer isn't too keen to play the match odds market both owing to Carlo Ancelotti's talk of playing a different team in each leg - the second takes place on Friday at the Calderon - and the suspicion that Atletico will be brilliant again this season.

One outcome-related wager worth pondering instead is laying Real to lead at the break at 2.26/5, as they have only done so in two of the last seven Madrid derbies.

Over/under 2.5 goals

During Atletico's 2013/14 giant-slaying masterclass, they faced their financial superiors Real and Barcelona on 11 occasions and nine of those were graced by two goals or fewer, including both Supercopa legs against Catalonia's finest.

Los Colchoneros kept Real quiet for over 92 minutes in May's Champions League final and three-quarters of their magnificent 2013/14 back four remain (Diego Godin, Miranda and Juanfran) and are available to start at the Bernabeu.

Simeone's men kept 20 La Liga clean sheets, eight of those in their travels, while Real scored just twice past a far less accomplished Sevilla defence last week with all their attacking riches on show.

Best Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.226/5
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Real Madrid to lead at half time @ 2.26/5