Serie A Season Preview: Juventus the team to beat once more

Carlos Tevez is only one of the hot bets to be top scorer in Serie A this season

Serie A is back at last and Dave Farrar sees Roma giving Juventus a run for their Scudetto money, while he says Marco Sau can surprise Carlos Tevez in the race for the golden boot...

It seems like an age since Juventus made it three in a row, since Cesare Prandelli made us all hope and since we all thought that Ciro Immobile might be the new Toto Schillaci. He's gone to the Bundesliga, and he's not the only one to leave us, as once again we try and make sense of it all. 

The most significant departure from Serie A at time of writing is that of Antonio Conte from Juventus. Many better judges than me feel that he's just about the sharpest coach around, and his record with his beloved Old Lady was quite something.  

Conte's greatest achievement was to turn Juve back into the machine of old, and produce a team which was always comfortable in his system, whatever changes of personnel proved necessary. You knew what to expect from Juve, and retaining that level of consistency will be Massimiliano Allegri's biggest challenge.  

I'm not a huge fan of Allegri, and I doubt that he'll make Juve better, but the big question is whether they'll decline significantly enough to allow others into the title picture. With so much experience in their team, with so many leaders, and with Conte's methods instilled into them, I can't see Juve falling away to the extent that many believe they will, and I feel that they're by far and away the likeliest winners of Serie A.  

All of that will change, however, should Arturo Vidal and Paul Pogba leave the club over the next week. That would make Juve extremely vulnerable and should be taken into account as you build your Serie A portfolio.  

The biggest challenge, the only challenge, will come from Roma and Napoli. The Romans have been the sexiest betting team in Europe over the last few weeks, and they've become the ultimate wise guy horse in terms of the Outright Winner market for Serie A.

I don't like wise guy horses, as the reasons for them being punted tend to be a long way from sound: smart-alecry and a wish to appear knowledgeable take over from logic and cogent argument.  

Roma were excellent last season, make no mistake, and Rudi Garcia is a seriously good coach, but should they be trading at 3.412/5 to win Serie A?  Absolutely not. They have signed experience in Seydou Keita, Urby Emanuelson and Ashley Cole, taken a big risk with Juan Manuel Iturbe (Erik Lamela he ain't) and sold Mehdi Benatia to Bayern Munich. 

All good so far, but they have to make up SEVENTEEN points on Juventus, and that will need an improved performance on their part, and a decline from Juve. Roma CAN win it, and I fervently hope that they give my favourite player the send off that he deserves (love you, Francesco), but they're way too short and have to be swerved, especially when you consider an extra Champions League commitment and Totti's increasingly susceptible knees.

Napoli have done well to land Jonathan De Guzman and Michu, but their campaign will rest on the shoulders of Gonzalo Higuain. If he stays fit and has the season that he's capable of, then they can go close at 6.86/1, and constitute a better bet than Roma, but a so far unconvincing Rafa Benitez puts me off them, as does the Neapolitan inferiority complex which always seems to let the team down when it matters. You don't win this League if you don't believe that you can win it. 

I can't see too many surprises below the big three, with Fiorentina vulnerable to a possibly improving Inter, and Pippo Inzaghi vulnerable to unrealistic expectations at Milan. I'm delighted to have Palermo back in Serie A, if only for the madness of their President Maurizio Zamparini, and it's also a big thrill to welcome Zdenek Zeman (I bow as I type this) to Cagliari: they'll be the early season "overs" team, mark my words.  

After Immobile won last season's Capocannoniere, it's tempting to have another look away from the League's big names to find the Top Goalscorer.  

A big name normally wins it, though, and I want Carlos Tevez onside after he finished only three goals short of Immobile. Tevez was one of the success stories of last season without ever seeming to get the credit that he deserves. I think he'll have another massive season, and will also take a chance that Marco Sau can develop into the kind of consistent goalscorer that he has always promised to be. He has scored 12 and six goals in the last two seasons, and will benefit from a more attacking Cagliari approach.  

For all that's different this season, though, one thing will stay the same.  Juventus are the team to beat, and they're too big at odds against to make it four in a row. Being honest, I hope Roma, but I think Juve, and in the world of gambling, thought always beats hope.  Enjoy the season. 

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.35/4
Back Carlos Tevez to be Top Scorer @ 10.09/1
Back Marco Sau to be Top Scorer @ 30.029/1