Football Bet of the Day: Back the Dragon to melt the Steel Tricolour

Beware the Dragon!

Our travel-loving tipster Kevin Hatchard is once again on the lookout for profit, and he's settled on Brazil's Serie B for his latest effort.

Atletico Goianiense v Sampaio Correa
Saturday August 23rd, 20:10

Another disappointment for us this week, this time from Argentina, as Arsenal kept their powder largely dry and edged out Olimpo 1-0. We wanted Over 2.5 Goals at a hefty price, but as some old song that they're always playing on GOLD says, we can't always get what we want. We're back where we started a few weeks ago, but in the words of the esteemed philosopher Iain Dowie, we need to now show that we've got bouncebackability.

A short hop across to Brazil now, and a second-tier clash between Atletico Goianiense and Sampaio Correa. Atletico GO netted us a winner a couple of weeks ago when they obliging lost to high-flying Ceara, but that has been their only home defeat in the league all season. The Dragon, as they are known, have won five of their last six league games at the Estadio Serra Dourada. Only the division's top three teams have scored more goals on their own patch than Atletico.

Atletico aren't just playing well at home. Over the last six games in Brazil's second division, only Avai have collected more points than Atletico's tally of 12. Just like Daenerys Targaryen in Game of Thrones, Atletico have three particularly dangerous dragons they can unleash upon their opponents. The triumvirate of Junior Vicosa, Jorginho and Andre Luis have scored 17 goals between them, and Atletico GO are the only team to have three men in the top 15 of the Serie B goalscoring charts.

Tonight's opponents Sampaio Correa are only a point worse off than Atletico in the standings, but the newly-promoted side have hit a rough patch of form. The Steel Tricolour (the nicknames are one of my favourite bits of this job) hasn't been so steely of late, with just two points collected from the last four league games. Sampaio Correa have lost three of their last four away games, and overall they've won just two of their last eight outings.

Given the recent form of the two sides, 2.166/5 looks a touch overpriced for the home win.

Recommended Bet

Back Atletico GO to win at 2.166/5

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked 12

Points Returned: 11.5

P/L: -0.5 points