Bundesliga Betting: Can Dortmund stop the Bayern juggernaut?

Robert Lewandowski will boost Bayern Munich's attack

In the first part of his Bundesliga season preview, Kevin Hatchard looks at the prospects of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, as well as the contenders for Champions League qualification...

After Germany's impressive victory at the World Cup in Brazil, the stock of the country's football has arguably never been higher. However, for the Bundesliga to maintain worldwide interest, it must feature a title race that involves more than just one team. Last term, Pep Guardiola's Bayern Munich secured the title earlier than any other side in Bundesliga history, as they had the shield comfortably in their possession by the end of March. So, can any of the division's other big hitters cause them more problems this time around?

The big two

Bayern seem absurdly short at 1.21/5 in the Winner 2014/15 market, but based on last season's success you can understand why. Although the Bavarian giants haven't splashed out huge transfer fees, they have strengthened their squad. Polish striker Robert Lewandowski is the headline addition, and not only does his arrival at the Allianz Arena improve the Bayern starting eleven, but it blows a huge hole in the attack of rivals Borussia Dortmund. As free transfers go, it's a bit of a doozy.

Lewandowski was last season's top scorer in the Bundesliga, and he has replaced the man who finished second in the list, Mario Mandzukic. The Croatian departed after a series of disagreements with Guardiola, and he knew his number was up as soon as Bayern agreed to sign Lewandowski. Bayern have also recruited left-sided utility man Juan Bernat from Valencia, who can play in defence or midfield. His arrival could be the key to unlocking the attacking potential of David Alaba. Eintracht Frankfurt's midfield battler Sebastian Rode has been snapped up on a free, and although many doubted he could force his way into the team, he has been a key figure in pre-season.

Bayern's preparations haven't all been plain sailing, and Guardiola has questions to answer. His determination to bed in a three-man defence will be sorely tested by a long-term injury to Javi Martinez, who surely would have been a key player in that system. Bayern were all over the place in their 2-0 Supercup defeat at Borussia Dortmund, and I'll be intrigued to see how the team lines up against Wolfsburg on Friday. A recent injury setback to midfield schemer Thiago Alcantara could also be significant, as he is a player the Catalan coach sees as integral as he bids to evolve the team's style.

Borussia Dortmund are Bayern's most likely challengers, and 6.86/1 is an attractive price for a squad that looks far stronger than last season. This time last year I expressed concerns that BVB didn't have enough cover for the first eleven, and so it proved, as a slew of injuries decimated the squad. Although the loss of Lewandowski is a hammer blow (remember they lost Mario Gotze to Bayern the year before), Dortmund have kept Germany defender Mats Hummels and reigning Bundesliga Player of the Year Marco Reus out of the clutches of continental rivals.

The attacking options look deep and varied. Last season's Serie A top scorer Ciro Immobile has arrived from Torino, and while he offers speed and accurate finishing, Colombian forward Adrian Ramos provides height and strength. Ramos netted 16 goals for Hertha Berlin last term, and is a huge threat from free-kicks and corners. In wide attacking positions, Reus has the talent to score and make goals, while the unpredictable Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will benefit from having had a season of Bundesliga football under his belt. Playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan continues to improve under coach Jurgen Klopp, and is emerging as one of the most dangerous playmakers in Europe.

Dortmund suffered from a series of injuries in defence last term, with Neven Subotic, Lukasz Piszczek and Marcel Schmelzer all having long spells on the sidelines. This time, there is strength in depth across the back four. Fledgling Germany international Erik Durm will put huge pressure on Schmelzer for the left-back slot, Kevin Grosskreutz can back up Piszczek at right-back, and at centre-back Sokratis and former Freiburg defender Matthias Ginter are excellent alternatives.

Although Dortmund start with a tough fixture against Bayer Leverkusen, their first few weeks should be plain sailing. The only potentially tricky fixture between now and when they first face Bayern on November 1st is the Ruhr derby at Schalke in late September. If Dortmund can edge ahead of Bayern in the early weeks while Pep tinkers with his team, then that price of 6.86/1 might shorten. As a back-to-lay bet, it's an intriguing possibility.

The race for the top four

Bayer Leverkusen are a fascinating prospect under new coach Roger Schmidt, who carved out a reputation at Red Bull Salzburg as a man who espouses fast-paced, attacking football. He certainly has the tools to make that style work. Forwards Stefan Kiessling and Heung-Min Son scored 25 league goals between them last season, while new signing Josip Drmic bagged 17. Bayer have brought in Hamburg's talented tyro Hakan Calhanoglu to provide the ammunition, and he can also chip in with spectacular goals from distance.

Bernd Leno is improving all the time as a keeper, and although there are question marks over the defence, loan signing Kyriakos Papdopoulos could be one of the transfer coups of the season if he stays fit. Bayer are the 2.526/4 favourites in the Winner W/O Bayern and Dortmund market, and although they finished fourth behind Schalke last term, I think they can go one better this season.

Schalke have an exciting crop of young players, but despite a strong finish to last season, they are far from the finished article. The Royal Blues are still far too reliant on injury-prone striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, who was the only Schalke player to reach double-figures in terms of goals, even though he played just 18 games. Young guns like Julian Draxler, Kaan Ayhan, Max Meyer, Sead Kolasinac and Leon Goretzka have huge potential, but the team has a soft centre, which was proven by an abject German Cup exit at third-tier Dynamo Dresden. If Schalke start badly, the pressure will once again be on eternally unconvincing coach Jens Keller. They are too short at 1.645/8 in the Top 4 market.

Wolfsburg only missed out on a place in the top four in the final week of the season, and they look well placed for another crack at Champions League qualification. Sporting director Klaus Allofs is one of the best in the business, and he has made some shrewd signings. Eintracht Frankfurt right-back Sebastian Jung is one of the best young full-backs in the league, Werder Bremen's Aaron Hunt will add drive and experience to the midfield, while midfield powerhouse Joshua Guilavogui has something to prove after his career stalled at Atletico Madrid. Allofs has largely made solid buys, but the acquisition of maverick striker Nicklas Bendtner from Arsenal feels like a risk Wolfsburg didn't need to take.

Borussia Monchengladbach could be the league's great entertainers. Coach Lucien Favre likes to field two genuine wingers and two strikers, and he has bolstered his attack. Wide player Andre Hahn was one of last season's success stories, and has arrived for a bargain fee from Augsburg. Winger Ibrahima Traore is raw, but could flourish under Favre, after he was restricted by Stuttgart's safety-first approach. Talented playmaker Thorgan Hazard has arrived on loan from Chelsea, and USA international Fabian Johnson provides options in midfield and defence.

If you want a bit of value in the Top 4 market, then Gladbach could be your team at a healthy price of 5.85/1. If you think they'll finish Top 6 for the second season running, then they can be backed at 1.981/1.

Recommended Bets

Back-to-lay Borussia Dortmund in the Winner 2014/15 market at 6.86/1
Back Bayer Leverkusen in the Without Bayern and Dortmund market at 2.526/4