Manchester City v Liverpool: There will be goals but favourites should prosper

Edin Dzeko extended his contract this week and could get his name on the scoresheet in what should be an entertaining game

There are some strong trends to this match and Joe Dyer thinks that combining a couple of them in a double is the best way to play this attractive Monday night fixture...

Manchester City v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1 

Man City
The 3.7511/4 title second favourites did what they had to do during their 2-0 opening weekend win at Newcastle, keeping their opponents at arm's length in a professional performance. The gap between City and Chelsea in the title betting is a little mystifying to me and I'd be tempted to take a chance on Manuel Pellegrini's men at their current price. They are at near full strength for their first home game of the season with just Alvaro Negredo and new signing Elliaquim Mangala unavailable through injury. 

Liverpool
An off-season spent largely spending the Luis Suarez millions leaves Liverpool bedding in a fair chunk of new players as evidenced by an off-colour opening day defeat of Southampton. Two of last season's star men scored the goals to win that game and while those players - Raheem Sterling and Daniel Sturridge - are going to be key to the Anfield side's success throughout the campaign, they will be especially important in the early stages while Brendan Rodgers gets his new signings settled into his systems.   

Daniel Agger and Adam Lallana are the notable absentees for the visitors. 

Match Odds
City, 1.8910/11 to back, are rarely this big to win a home game and they will have plenty of backers at that price. It's easy to see why. Last season's champions won 17 of their 19 league matches at The Etihad, losing only to Chelsea while Sunderland were the side who managed to secure a draw. One of those games was against Liverpool of course, with Vincent Kompany and Alvaro Negredo cancelling out Philippe Coutinho's opener. 

Fellow Betting.Betfair editor Dan Thomas has made City his selection in this week's Betting Battle and I'm inclined to agree with him. City were the better side last season, have better continuity among the playing staff and an exceptional home record to boot. I don't think they'll be as big as 1.8910/11 at kick-off and it looks a price worth taking. 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
These two teams both scored more than 100 Premier League goals last season and while Liverpool don't have Luis Suarez they still possess plenty of threat. They should score at The Etihad. So, too, should City. The markets clearly expect a humdinger - over 2.5 goals is firmly odds-on at 1.674/6 while over 3.5 is just 2.6213/8. Reckon we'll see five or more? You'll get 5.04/1. 

Side Market Selection - Match Odds/Over 2.5 Goals Double
None of those overs bets appeal as singles but we can combine a home win with over 2.5 goals at 2.747/4 and I think there's enough in that to warrant a bet. The goals trend is obvious, the home record is strong - stick them together and we have a nice bet at generous odds. 

Recommended Bet
1pt Back City/Over 2.5 goal double @ 2.747/4