Leyton Orient manager Russell Slade
After drawing a blank on Tuesday night, Alan Dudman is sticking with Orient to gain their first home win of the season in the latest round of League One fixtures this Saturday...
Leyton Orient 1.981/1 v Walsall 4.67/2, the draw 3.613/5
This is the third time I have gone with a Leyton Orient match preview, and hopefully I'll get them right this Saturday. I put them up for the midweek fixture at Bristol City (a game in which they drew 0-0), and they were somewhat unlucky considering the amount of possession they had. In fact, they looked the better team overall with several spells of good play, but then again, City had a goal disallowed that should've stood.
O's manager Russell Slade made four changes for Tuesday and included former Reading winger Joby McAnuff for a start. He switched wings well with Dean Cox and always looked a threat out wide. Forward Darius Henderson had another good game, and the former Forest man is sure to have a productive season.
Even though Slade bemoaned the lack of a killer instinct this week, they did score three at Oldham last Saturday in a match they were completely in control of. I think they are getting better, and there is more to come from the Londoners this weekend.
Walsall again can count themselves unlucky on Tuesday (and I am not moaning honest, considering I tipped them up for a draw against Yeovil), as they completely carved open the Glovers in the first-half. It was a bad game for me as the Huish Park club decided to break their goal drought, and Walsall ended up losing their way in the second period trying to chase the result.
So far the Saddlers are DDL against Orient's LWD, but I still worry about the midlanders attacking threat despite all their nice play.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
This looks a hard one, as Orient have a different style to the ball retention of the visitors. The O's like to play off the front two quickly and are very well organised. The draw @ 3.613/5 would need to be traded to around 2.56/4 to 2.26/5 to nick a point, but it's not exactly a sexy call. I expect the Londoners to win this, so I would use a point to stake on a home 1-0 win @ 9.08/1.
Summary
Any sort of price around 1.910/11 is fair enough on Russell Slade's side, who I think are improving. I really liked their second-half display against Oldham last Saturday, and considering Slade made four changes in midweek, it was a really decent point at Ashton Gate. Even though striker Kevin Lisbie (shoulder) looks doubtful, I am confident there is a goal in the home team.
Recommended Bet
Back Orient to win @ 1.910/11
Swindon Town 1.784/5 v Crewe Alexandra 5.04/1, the draw 3.6013/5
There were a couple of times last term where I risked a point on a wild price with Crewe away, and we seem to have the same again here. I couldn't touch Swindon at 1.608/13 earlier this week, it was far too short. However, the price of 1.784/5 is very attractive now the market has settled down, whereas the Alex (who were torn apart on Tuesday) are once again at huge odds for a road trip.
In fact, Crewe could be a 6.50n/a shot considering how bad they were in midweek. They were stuffed 5-2 at home to Rochdale (who hadn't won a game prior) in a performance that manager Steve Davis labelled 'unacceptable'. The centre-backs were ripped to shreds and the gap between the Crewe defence and midfield was vast. Swindon have some fine ball players to take advantage of that, but you have the short price factored in.
The angle I like is the goals one. All three of Crewe's matches so far have hit the over 2.5 target (L2-5, L1-2 and L2-1). They have also taken the lead in two of those, which suggests an element of mental weakness. They actually don't look a bad side going forward, but they need to defend.
Swindon meanwhile have played superbly in all their encounters so far. The 2-2 midweek draw at Gillingham should have been three points, and the 1-0 loss beforehand should have been a win. Their opening day 3-1 success against Scunthorpe was a 'wave-after-wave' game comprising of some splendid attacking play.
Town boss Mark Cooper has a lot of young players, which can bring about some naivety, hence why they have conceded bad goals. However they are decent going forward and are the sort of team to play out wide rather than to smash it direct to the forward.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
I have tried this once so far this term to no avail, but if you expect 90 minutes with goals and the hosts to do well, the 2-1 and 3-1 correct scorelines are obvious ones to try and build a decent position. And considering Crewe have taken the lead twice out of three games, the outright 5.04/1 looks tempting as an early goal would reduce their odds considerably.
Summary
Even though I need to get out of negative equity in this column, the 1.768/11 price is not much good to me alone, but I do see Swindon winning this. A price of 1.910/11 for the over 2.5 goals looks slightly more appealing however, not only because of the goals from the Robins so far this term (five), but the fact that both teams are young and make mistakes, and both are threats going forward. Incidentally the over 3.5 goals is available to back at 3.613/5.
Recommended Bets
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11
Back Swindon to win @ 1.784/5
Fleetwood Town 2.1411/10 v Chesterfield 3.185/40, the draw 3.65n/a
Surprisingly Fleetwood are the 100% record team in League One this term, courtesy of victories against Crewe, Notts County and Scunthorpe. OK, they are hardly big scalps, but it's an excellent start for the Cod Army under boss Graham Alexander. They've scored five and conceded just the one, so it looks an intriguing match-up this weekend against their fellow promoted rivals from last term.
From Tuesday night's victory against the Iron, they look a side that thrives on getting balls into the box, despite the fact they looked frustrated for long periods of the match.
Chesterfield meanwhile have picked up six points from their three games and arguably have had a 'tougher trip' in racing parlance. I mentioned in Tuesday's column that the Spirerites looked the best equipped team at this level from the promoted sides, and there's no reason to change that view despite the midweek loss to the MK Dons.
In fact, Dons boss Karl Robinson really praised Chesterfield, saying how they moved the ball quickly with some aerial prowess and described it as their hardest game of the season. They really did push the Dons, but ultimately didn't quite have the quality of their more established (at this level) opponents. Manager Paul Cook uses a 4-2-3-1 whereas Alexander went with a 4-1-2-1-2 against Notts County.
I really like Gary Roberts for the visitors, and he was a constant threat on Tuesday, plus they do have a goalscorer in Eoin Doyle - who unfortunately drew a blank against the Dons, but Roberts had a big influence on that match.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
Chesterfield's Tuesday affair was quite a tricky game early on, and the fact that Cook has used 'one up top' before means this might be a midfield match for the early part. The Cod Army hit two late goals at Glandford Park on Tuesday night, but the Iron look the worst of the promoted teams. With the potential cagey nature as outlined before, the biggest priced draw looks the call, coupled with using that half-time market.
Summary
The two recent matches for Chesterfield has shown they do belong at this level, and as Fleetwood are the top team in League One so far with three wins, should set up a good game. I am undecided about the over/unders so it's a market I will steer clear of. A lay of the hosts won't be too painful at around evens here, and as tempted as I am by backing the draw, I want two running for me by taking the view on the hosts.
Recommended Bet
Lay Fleetwood @ 2.1411/10
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 5.40 pts
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