воскресенье, 24 августа 2014 г.

US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Five potential first round upsets in New York

Could we be seeing this from Kei Nishikori again? Could we be seeing this from Kei Nishikori again?

The 2014 US Open gets underway on Monday and tennis expert Sean Calvert is back to select his top five possible upsets in round one of the men's singles...

This year's final major of the season looks a very open contest, with the major players struggling with injury or loss of form and the underdogs should be rubbing their hands together ahead of this one.

As ever towards the end of the season there are plenty of fitness issues plaguing some of the seeds meaning there might be some good punting opportunities around.

Kei Nishikori vs Wayne Odesnik
Probably not the story that the ITF will want, but going on what Kei is saying ahead of this match there's a very decent chance that he won't be able to complete it - he may not even start it.

This one isn't about tennis ability, as Kei is a clear winner on that score, but the Japanese had a cyst removed from his foot recently and hasn't played for a month.

"I don't know if I will play. I don't know if I will be able to get through the first round," Nishikori said and although a little of the value on Odesnik has gone now it's still worth taking a chance on the American at 6.05/1.

Tomas Berdych vs Lleyton Hewitt
Berdych has been in poor form all summer pretty much, with five losses as favourite ranging between 1.192/11 and 1.454/9 in his last five tournaments.

Confidence can't possibly be high with the Czech at the moment and he probably rolled his eyes when he saw this draw against the veteran Aussie, who surely is only still playing to be a part of matches like these on a big stage.

Form isn't really an issue with Rusty at the last knockings of his career and his feeble losses to Julien Benneteau and Fabio Fognini in his last two events can be overlooked.

Hewitt looked to have shoulder problems against Fognini and he's perhaps been protecting that a bit, but I'd be surprised if he didn't at least make this close as a 4.84/1 shot.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Jiri Vesely
The Australian Open champion was mentally a total shambles in his last match and that pathetic capitulation to Benneteau in Cincy was far from the first time that Wawrinka has checked out of matches in 2014.

He was a 1.11/10 shot when losing badly to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez at the French Open, winning just two further games from one set all there, and prior to that he gave up the ghost from a set up against Dominic Thiem in Madrid as a 1.111/9 chance.

He also lost at 1.021/50 in Davis Cup to Andrey Golubev, 1.21/5 to Kevin Anderson at Indian Wells and Alex Dolgopolov at 1.364/11 in Miami, so it's fair to say he's not exactly one to trust at short prices at the moment.

The Swiss's prices were a little bigger at around 1.351/3 when Benny and Anderson beat him in Toronto and Cincy and Vesely has a big serve and can play, so he's no forlorn hope here.

The young Czech is more at home on clay, but he played well at Indian Wells in the spring on hard in almost beating Andy Murray as a 12.011/1 shot and despite his own poor form of late he'll have no pressure on him and a lay of Wawrinka at 1.121/8 looks the call.

Mikhail Youzhny vs Nick Kyrgios
The Russian has had a miserable season in 2014 and if Kyrgios is fit he's more than capable of beating Youzhny as underdog here.

The young Aussie sensation withdrew from Cincy with bone stress in his left arm and he has been plagued by injury a fair bit in his short career thus far, which probably explains the prices here.

His serve won't be a problem, but the backhand might be, depending on how well it's healed and as his MRI scan showed no damage it's worth risking him at around 2.568/5 against an opponent who hasn't won more than two straight matches all season.

Marin Cilic vs Marcos Baghdatis
The Croatian has been struggling with a hand injury of late and it really seemed to bother him in a tame loss from a set up against Wawrinka in Cincy last time out.

If he's not 100 percent he could face a tough time from Baghdatis, who has dropped down to Challenger level to regain his confidence to excellent effect.

The popular Cypriot won his two Challenger tournaments in Vancouver and Aptos and in the latter event served at a decent percentage, which has long been the key to his game.

When he serves well Baghdatis can still be a dangerous opponent and although it's asking a lot for him to come out and beat the number 14 seed first up here he could and should make Cilic work very hard for the win.

Others that were on my shortlist were Borna Coric against Lukas Rosol, who, despite his Winston-Salem win looks too short against a very talented youngster, and Blaz Rola, who could easily stun the inconsistent Fernando Verdasco.

Benoit Paire could take down his comrade Benneteau, while Alejandro Falla is always dangerous at slams and has it in him to stun Jeremy Chardy.

There were half a dozen big upsets in round one last year, with the biggest price being Maximo Gonzalez beating Jerzy Janowicz at 13.012/1 and hopefully a few of those I've mentioned will give a run for your money.

They can all be backed on a Cash Out basis and should give some good opportunities.

Recommended Bets
Back Odesnik to beat Nishikori at 6.05/1
Back Hewitt to beat Berdych at 4.84/1
Back Vesely to beat Wawrinka at 8.615/2
Back Kyrgios to beat Youzhny at 2.568/5
Back Baghdatis to beat Cilic at 4.57/2

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