ATP Western & Southern Open Betting: Wawrinka and Isner fresh for Cincy success

Stan Wawrinka should be fit and ready for a title tilt this week

The second of the back-to-back Masters 1000s starts in earnest on Monday in Cincinnati and Sean Calvert has selected two outright bets in the Western and Southern Open draw...

Last week's Rogers Cup in Toronto did bring the big-priced outright finalist I had expected, but it was hard to imagine that it would come from the incredibly tough top half of the draw.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was the man matched at 180179/1 who came through, while I was hugely disappointed with the performance of my 5049/1 shot Ernests Gulbis, who let a great opportunity slip.

The Latvian lost out to Julien Benneteau early on and he is one of several players who could benefit from a very similar draw in Cincy this week.

Played in the oppressive heat of the Ohio summer at the Lindner Family Tennis Centre the Western and Southern Open utilises a pacy, Decoturf outdoor hard court that generally favours aggressive players.

It can be tough to control the ball here in Cincy and it's proved a great venue for Roger Federer over the years, with the Swiss landing five titles here.

Cincy has proved a frustrating venue for Novak Djokovic who has lost in the final four times here, while Andy Murray has won it on two occasions.

Djokovic's performance against Tsonga was little short of abysmal and he'll surely do better this week, but his price of around 2.47/5 holds no interest to me and especially after last week and given he's never won here.

His half of the draw is much the same as last week, with Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Tsonga, and Richard Gasquet again drawn alongside the world number one.

David Ferrer is in the top half this week too, but I like Wawrinka at around 21.020/1 here to be the main danger to Djokovic and potentially make the final.

The Swiss will certainly be fresh after an early exit to Kevin Anderson in Toronto and he has a good draw alongside Marin Cilic, who he has a good record against and Gasquet, who is injured, plus Dimitrov who may not have enough in the tank.

Wawrinka has done well in Cincy in the past, with a semi final showing in 2012 and he'll be very keen to get some matches in his legs ahead of the US Open.

Dimitrov may not be so keen after 11 sets last week and Gasquet's participation must be in doubt after an abdominal injury that was reported at the time as being a tear.

Cilic was woeful until the Federer match in Toronto and even then he didn't look up to the sort of form that could mean a challenge here and perhaps only Feli Lopez, Jerzy Janowicz or Ivo Karlovic look capable of the rest in that section on their best form.

Djokovic's quarter looks pretty comfortable unless Ferrer really steps up, but the Spaniard has a poor record here and Tsonga is highly unlikely to find Djokovic as accommodating two weeks running.

In the bottom half Federer is an obvious threat with his great record here, but once again Gulbis has a fine draw and looks one for the shortlist if you're prepared to forgive that weak effort from the Latvian last week.

Tomas Berdych has injury issues currently, while Murray, who swaps sides of the draw with Ferrer this week, still has it all to prove after flopping from a winning position against Tsonga.

Murray still hasn't beaten a top-10 ranked player since winning Wimbledon in 2013 and has a 3-10 record against top-20 players in that same time frame, so 11.010/1 looks a little skinny based on that.

I was encouraged when he said he was back training at 100 percent for the first time since the back operation, but mentally he was all over the place against Tsonga in Toronto and a title looks beyond him right now.

I actually think that in these conditions Isner has a decent chance of making his third Masters 1000 final and poor showings in Washington DC and Toronto haven't really put me off.

Big John made the final here last year, losing out 7-6, 7-6 to Rafa Nadal, but the quick surface here clearly suits his game, similarly to Indian Wells, where it also bounces very high.

Djokovic noted last year that it was difficult to return here and Murray added that it bounces high, so Isner has to be on the shortlist at a price of around 5049/1.

The big man has looked a little shaky this summer so far, but he did win in Atlanta despite not playing well, and his serve will be even tougher than normal to deal with this week.

A tough first round against Kevin Anderson may be assisted by the latter suffering mentally after a huge choke against Dimitrov in Toronto and the winner of that match could go far.

Obviously, the stumbling block for Isner could be Federer, but for once Fed has a tough-looking draw, with Gael Monfils, Radek Stepanek, Vasek Pospisil, and Roberto Bautista-Agut in his immediate section.

The Swiss will probably come through, but he's never done the Rogers Cup/Cincy double and only Rafa Nadal last year and Andy Roddick in 2003 have managed it this century so far.

At the time of writing he hadn't played the Rogers Cup final against Tsonga, but he'll probably win it and either way he'll be a little fatigued for what will be a tough week in Ohio.

Milos Raonic also has claims in the bottom half, but I'm not sure that his big swipes at the ball will suit Cincy that well and he looked a little jaded last week in Toronto after winning in DC.

There are thunderstorms forecast for Cincinnati until Wednesday, so it could be a hot and humid start to the week, and I would prefer players who didn't exert themselves too much last week.

Recommended Bets (back to lay)
Back Wawrinka at 21.020/1
Back Isner at 51.0n/a