Against All Odds: Flu to be caught cold at home to Goias

Are the good days coming back to Fluminense?

2012 Brazilian champs, Fluminense, take on Goias this evening and Paul Robinson thinks they are far too short in the market.

Fluminense v Goias
Saturday August 3, 22:30 BST

Fluminense have regrouped this season following a dismal title defence last year. After avoiding relegation on a technicality, Flu have managed to pick up 22 points from their opening dozen fixtures to put them third in the table - albeit seven points adrift of leaders, Cruzeiro.

Cristvo Borges' side came back from the World Cup break with a defeat at Criciuma but since then it's been impressive victories at home to Santos and then away at Atletico PR last weekend. I have concerns about how reliable they are though as they have thrown in some poor performances this term and I can't trust them at the current prices.

Opponents, Goias, may be five places behind but the gap is only two points and the visitors have actually lost less games this season. The reason 'Big Emerald Green' aren't higher up the league is the fact they've drawn too many matches, but that wouldn't be an issue for us tonight.

With only eight goals conceded, Ricardo Drubscky's men have the third best defensive record in the entire division and they've kept clean sheets in four of their last six outings. While they have been beaten at Palmeiras and Coritiba this year, they've also avoided defeat at Flamengo and Gremio, while recording victories at Figueirense, and most impressively, at Atletico Mineiro.

This should be a very close fought encounter and although Fluminense are back to near their best, Goias are very hard to beat. That's why, at around the 1.635/8 mark, I have to make Fluminense my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Fluminense v Goias @ 1.635/8

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 205 pts
Returned: 213.23 pts
P/L: + 8.23 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)