Against All Odds: Brazilian duo to get among the goals

Quite simply, the best team in Brazil

Runaway leaders, Cruzeiro, travel to Criciuma in Brazil tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that despite the odds, we'll be in for a minimum of three goals.

Criciuma v Cruzeiro
Saturday August 9, 22:30 BST

Criciuma are currently 13th in the Campeonato after picking up 15 points from their first 13 fixtures. They had been enjoying a decent spell - one defeat in six - culminating in a 3-2 victory over Fluminense, but since then it's been one point from nine for the team from Santa Catarina.

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in tonight though and Wagner Lopes' men have had two of their last four go over 2.5. Interestingly, they were both matches in front of their own fans and they produced a total of nine goals between them.

Cruzeiro are the reigning champions and it already appears as if they will retain their crown. Four points clear at the top, it's difficult to envisage the likes of Fluminense, Internacional or Corinthians living with them over a 38 game season.

The main reason for that is the sheer amount of goals that Marcelo Oliveira's side score. They've chalked up 29 so far this term and while they've conceded 13 themselves, when you're scoring that many, you don't need to keep clean sheets. Their fixtures this year are averaging 3.23 goals each time, with nine of the 13 going over 2.5.

Under 2.5 goals should never be odds-on with Cruzeiro involved, which is why, with it trading at around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Criciuma v Cruzeiro @ 1.8810/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 209 pts
Returned: 215.90 pts
P/L: + 6.90 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)