Football Bet of the Day: There's no defence for backing Defensa

Atletico Rafaela are having a fine season

Kevin Hatchard hopes to continue his winning run with a selection from Argentina's top division, and he is baffled by the short odds on offer for the league's bottom side.

Defensa y Justicia v Atletico Rafaela
Friday November 14, 22:10

Hey Audax, Audax Italiano. Hey Audax, Audax Italiano. See, it's not just X Factor hopefuls who can change up a song and "make it their own". Anyway, good old Audax Italiano mounted a stirring comeback in the Chilean Cup last night, and their 2-2 draw with Palestino saw our Over 2.5 Goals bet land with a goal to spare. Muy bueno.

A short hop to Argentina now, and a Primera Division clash between rock-bottom Defensa y Justicia and 7th-placed Atletico Rafaela. 

Defensa y Justicia are having a horror season, and it's just as well there is no relegation at the end of the Torneo Transicion. The Hawks have won just three of their 14 league games, and they haven't claimed maximum points from a match in over a month. Indeed, they have collected just four points from their last seven league outings.

As you might expect with a team that is rock bottom, Defensa y Justicia have one of the worst defences in the division (ironic considering their name), with 27 goals shipped at an average of nearly two per game. They are also struggling at the other end - they have scored just 16 goals, and only Olimpo (10) have a worse record. Watching Olimpo must be like turning up to what you thought was a birthday party, only to find it's actually a surprise trip to the dentist. For a root canal filling. With no anaesthetic. 

Atletico Rafaela have lost just two of their last 12 matches in all competitions, and they beat Defensa y Justicia 1-0 in a Copa Argentina tie just over three weeks ago. I commentated on Atletico in their 2-0 win at Racing Club in October, and although they rode their luck that day, I was impressed with several individuals in the team. Attacking midfielder Federico Gonzalez has great movement and awareness, full-backs Juan Eluchans and Joel Sacks are solid but good going forward, and German Rodriguez Rojas is a bundle of energy in midfield.

Atletico's away record is pretty good, with three wins, two draws and just two losses. They haven't lost an away game since August, and that was also the last time they conceded a goal on their travels. Newly-promoted Defensa y Justicia have won just once at home all season, and I cannot for the life of me work out with they are trading at 2.0621/20 to win this game. You would be well within your rights to back the visitors outright at 3.9n/a, but I'm going to cover the draw as well and recommend laying the home side.

Recommended Bet

Lay Defensa y Justicia at 2.0621/20

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 53

Points Returned: 52.52

P/L: -0.48 points