Against All Odds: Internacional to suffer top four blow

Atletico Mineiro lifted the Copa Libertadoes in 2013

There's a huge clash in Brazil this evening as Internacional host Atletico Mineiro and Paul Robinson thinks the visitors can take at least a point.

Internacional v Atletico MG
Saturday November 22, 21:30 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video  

It's all about a top four place for these two clubs as that would see them qualify for the Copa Libertadores next year. While top three is preferred - whoever finishers fourth will have to go through a qualifying round - both Internacional and Atletico Mineiro would take that spot right now.

As it stands, Mineiro are in fourth with 61 points, Internacional are fifth with 60 and Gremio are sixth with 60. There are only three games to go, so if there is a winner tonight, the victor would be in pole position to finish fourth.

The hosts, Internacional, come into the game in mixed form as while they beat Goias last weekend, prior to that, it was just 10 points from a possible 27 for the Porto Alegre based club. They have home advantage here and their record at Beira-Rio is fantastic - 13 wins and four defeats from 17 this term - but it's worth noting that three of the four losses came against the current top three, so one could argue that they are flat-track bullies. 

Opponents, Atletico MG, come into this fixture in excellent form as Levir Culpi's side have won four of their last five in all competitions and drawn the other one. That includes a 2-0 success over champions elect, Cruzeiro, in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil final and a 4-0 thrashing of Flamengo in the week.

Favourite backers will point to the fact that Internacional have had six days rest since their last outing compared to Mineiro's two and a bit, but with so much on the line, I can't see 'Galo' showing any signs of fatigue. Admittedly their record on the road isn't the greatest either, but they did draw on this ground last season and they haven't lost to Abel Braga's men since 2012.

I expected Internacional to be favourites, but I was shocked when I saw how short they were. That's why, with their odds trading at around the 1.594/7 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Internacional v Atletico MG @ 1.594/7

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 314 pts
Returned: 332.03 pts
P/L: + 18.03 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)