ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Djokovic to have the edge over Federer in o2 final showdown

Which of this pair will prevail at the o2 tonight?

The last match of the 2014 ATP World Tour season takes place on Sunday at the o2 in London when Novak Djokovic takes on Roger Federer in the World Tour Finals and in-form Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

With the Davis Cup Final being the last event of the year next week this clash between the top two players in the world rankings is a fitting way for the main season to draw to a close.

Djokovic had a hand in ensuring that my recommended bet of Saturday was successful when he dropped the second set of his semi final with Kei Nishikori to bring home the over 19.5 total games wager.

It wasn't looking particularly promising for my 2.245/4 shot after one game of set two when the score was 6-1, *1-0 to the Serbian, but a lapse in concentration combined with an unnecessary spat with the crowd saw him lose focus.

Nishikori was able to up his level and take the set before folding in the decider, but our bet was in and Djokovic was able to put his feet up and watch the other semi final, which turned out to be a bit of a classic.

A tournament that has been sorely bereft of drama found it in abundance on Saturday night when Federer and Stan Wawrinka played out a three setter that ended on a tie break after almost three hours.

Wawrinka should have won it, but failed on four match points, and a below par Federer sneaked through to another final at the o2.

It will be 37th meeting between the pair when they meet at 6pm on Sunday and the sixth in 2014, of which Federer has won three and Djokovic two so far.

This slow surface in London makes it incredibly hard to hit winners past a master defender like Djokovic and the Serb has come out on top the last three times the pair have met on it.

They played twice on it last year - once in Bercy and once here - and once in the final in 2012, with Novak winning each time and there wasn't much from Federer last night to make me think he can turn it around.

That's bad news for my 5.04/1 outright pre-tournament tip on Federer, but those on that at least have a bit of profit to play with tonight, with Fed being a 4.216/5 shot currently.

Federer's improved form in 2014 and three wins over Djokovic give him a shot and the Serb is a little short at 1.330/100, but the conditions and Fed's late night last night won't help him.

The Swiss's serve is also a worry, with low percentages all week and he hasn't broken 60% of first serves in any match this tournament so far.

He'll need that to improve substantially if he's to have a good chance in these conditions, with Novak hitting the ball well and having plenty of time and space to defend here at the o2.

Federer does have a good record lately of winning opening sets against Djokovic, with the last four straight going the way of the Swiss and 3.412/5 isn't a bad price about that happening again tonight, but I'm not sure I see Fed winning overall.

The world number one's unbeaten record indoors going back two years shows how hard it is to get the better of him and too much for me points to a Djokovic win, with the minus 3.5 games appealing at 1.774/5.

It could be a three setter if Fed improves his serving, but I expect Novak to be too strong here and retain the title.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic -3.5 games at 1.774/5