пятница, 21 ноября 2014 г.

League Two Betting: Carlisle can blunt Daggers

Keith Curle could be rewarded for shouting to his team this weekend

Keith Curle's men should taste a rare away victory this weekend, while Wycombe should win as well says Ian Lamont, who also tips Burton to fly for Dutchman Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink, even if they are playing 11-game unbeaten Luton...

Dagenham 3.02/1 v Carlisle 2.568/5; the draw 3.55/2

Unless Dagenham were hiding something - and doing a pretty good job - at AFC Wimbledon on Saturday, they have little chance of gaining anything from this game. After they lost at Southport in the FA Cup replay in midweek, the chances seem even slimmer.

They began the week with a 2.25n/a quote in places to win this match. There was absolutely no way they deserved to be shorter than their visitors, even ones who Opta state have the fewest away points in League Two.

Wayne Burnett keeps making noises about either being in a relegation dogfight already or not being dragged into one: but the key words he is using are negative. It will hardly help the psychology within a squad which has won fewer home points (6) than any other team in the division, as Opta remind us.

In the league, they have scored three goals in five games, picking up just one point, even with the talented Jamie Cureton and Rhys Murphy in the squad, although they were subs at Kingsmeadow. With those two, they should be doing better than they are, but playing one up front - Adeoye Yusuff - ultimately led to having no shots on target.

By contrast, Keith Curle's Carlisle are on the up, even their reason run is a little off the colour they began with after a fine initial run under their new manager. Curle believes striker Billy Paynter, returning after injury, can be the perfect foil for Derek Asamoah who has four goals in five games since signing as a free agent a month ago.

The visitors certainly need to find the scoring touch having not netted in two away league games, but now Asamoah has begun starting matches and Paynter is in place, they can break down Dagenham's packed midfield.

Recommended Bet
Back Carlisle @ 2.568/5

Hartlepool United 3.211/5 v York City 2.466/4; the draw 3.412/5

Some home fans/critics are already calling this a 'must-win' game if Pools are to avoid relegation. Steady on, it's only the end of November! But in a sense they have a point. For whatever reason, boss Paul Murray has been struggling to bring in quality reinforcements.

Three recent recruits are experienced Nicky Featherstone, Sidney Schmeltz and Scott Fenwick, highly rated in non-league, from Dunston UTS. 

Murray noted in training that he very rarely misses the target in shooting practice. Pools fans who have yet to learn much about the 24-year-old from Newcastle, who vowed to his family that he would one day become a professional, will be hoping he can reproduce that in competitive action.

It might seem mean to suggest that if Pools can't beat York then who are they going to beat, but the Minstermen are not exactly the most fearsome opponents, having registered six goals in their past 10 league and FA Cup games, registering six points. Don't expect goals from this one. Opta point out that the only side to score fewer than York's 14 this season are Hartlepool with 12. The difference here is that York have six home draws and have conceded just nine at home compared to Pools' 17 in away games.

Hartlepool have at least scored nine goals in as many games, but are equally lacking in points. They clawed their way back to 2-2 in their last home game, against Newport, and York might prove harder to break down. But it looks like Murray will have to work with what he's got, inspire his threadbare team and try to turn around my prediction that Scott Flinders would have a very busy season in goal.

This could be a swansong for Charlie Wyke and Scott Harrison before they return to their parents clubs. They need to make it a good one.

Recommended Bet
Back Hartlepool @ 3.211/5

Burton 2.47/5 v Luton 3.412/5; the draw 3.412/5

It might appear that the Hatters, 11 games unbeaten, represent better value at the price than their hosts. But even if it does seem strange that Luton's price has lengthened this week from 2.915/8 - while Burton's has fallen by the same half point margin - it has to be remembered that all good runs have to come to an end.

The message is also clear from the Opta stats: stop Mark Cullen and you might stop the visitors. He has scored eight league goals, six more than any other player. Some might say you could dismiss Burton by similar token: Stuart Beavon has provided seven assists, six more than any other Brewers' player.

However, I think the hosts have the bit between their teeth under new manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, who must have been impressed that his new charges defeated Wycombe - leaders before last weekend - in his first game, especially midfielder Matthew Palmer who ran the show with Darragh Lenihan, the Blackburn loanee.

Luton defender Fraser Franks is now desperate to keep his place having earned a recall to the side, but this could be the game that bursts the bubble - and gives the visitors fresh impetus to start a new unbeaten run - because Burton's players will be out to finish the promotion chasing job they started under Gary Rowett, having gone off the boil before Monday's victory at Adams Park.

Recommended Bet
Back Burton @ 2.47/5

Cheltenham 2.89/5 v Wycombe 2.89/5; the draw 3.412/5

Among a plethora of juicy looking bets on possible away wins, this looks the best. I've run out of patience with Plymouth, a 2.56/4 chance at Mansfield, while Shrewsbury's away record makes them too short to back at 2.111/10 at Exeter.

Wycombe will feel scolded after a televised drubbing against Burton and could well be top of the League Two pile again if the win at Cheltenham, who have lost their last three league games, scoring once and conceding nine, Opta state. In addition, the Chairboys boast the best away record, with 17 points and conceding a league low six goals, scoring a league high 13.

Recommended Bet
Back Wycombe @ 2.89/5

P/L 2014-15

+6.89pt

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