Football Bet of the Day: Another barn burner at Barradao

Coritiba won't let Vitoria BA beat them lying down

Tobias Gourlay believes a relegation six pointer in Brazil can upset the odds

Vitoria BA v Coritiba
Wednesday 23:00

Ponte Preta 2 America RN 2 in Brazil last night.

A point might not be enough for either side, so we'll declare ourselves the real winners.

From Sao Paulo to Salvador today. On Brazil's north-east coast, our old friends Vitoria BA are entertaining Coritiba in what the locals may or may not be calling a 'seis ponteiro'.

Locked together on 37 points apiece, they are just one point clear of the Campeonato's relegation zone. Perhaps it's the precariousness of their situations that's encouraging the market to think it's going to be a tight, nervy low-scorer. Because recent history says that's not how it will be.

Vitoria have scored on eight of their last nine outings at Barradao. They've scored twice or more in 6/8. At the other end Ney Santo has watched his team concede in 9/10 home matches since he took over in August.

Coritiba arrive with some terrible away form. Marquinhos Santos' men have taken one point from 21 on the road, conceding a total of 19 goals across those seven matches.

The home win has some appeal at 2.265/4, bolstered by Vitoria's recent victories at Barradao over each of the league's bottom three teams. But, given Vitoria's consistently leaky defence and Coritiba's recent efforts in scoring twice in each of their last two road games, we'll take a goals bet at a marginally better price.

At Barradao 6/7 have delivered at least three match goals, while Coritiba have seen 6/7 road games go the same way.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4 in Vitoria BA v Coritiba

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 58pts
Returned: 54.28pts

-3.72pts