It's been a poor end of season for Palmeiras
Brazilian club, Palmeiras, are on a miserable run of form so Paul Robinson thinks they simply have to be opposed at odds-on.
Palmeiras v Sport Recife
Thursday November 20, 00:00 GMT
Palmeiras looked to be relatively safe from relegation a month or so ago but a run of just one win from their last six outings has them down in 14th place, just three points clear of the relegation zone. There are enough teams in between themselves and the trapdoor, but they still need to pick up some points to avoid plying their trade in Serie B next year.
Dorival Jnior's side have lost their last two without scoring a goal and while they did come against Atletico Mineiro and Sao Paulo, they were comfortably beaten. They had been doing quite well - especially at home - but since a win over Gremio back in October, it's been just one point from a possible nine in front of their own fans.
Opponents, Sport Recife are finishing their campaign well as two wins and a draw from their last three has helped them move to 12th in the table - eight points ahead of the drop zone. They had been doing quite poorly before this brief rally, but football is all about momentum and they will come into the game full of confidence.
Eduardo Baptista's men beat Figueirense and drew with Flamengo at home, before recording a hugely impressive win at Atletico PR last time. That was only their third victory on the road this term but it shouldn't be underestimated as the Curitiba based club rarely lose in their own stadium.
This selection is all about recent form and if we focus on that, there is no way that Palmeiras should be so short in the betting. That's why, with their price trading at around the 1.618/13 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Palmeiras v Sport Recife @ 1.618/13
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 310 pts
Returned: 328.47 pts
P/L: + 18.47 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)
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