Bundesliga Betting: Back resurgent Werder to take the northern spoils

The Nordderby is one of Germany's biggest derbies

The Bundesliga's back after the international break, and there's a fascinating northern derby which Kevin Hatchard believes can yield plenty of profit...

Hamburg v Werder Bremen
Sunday November 23, 14:30
Live on ESPN

Like two faded beauty queens trading on reputation and bemoaning their lost looks, northern rivals Hamburg and Werder Bremen are languishing in the bottom three, and the lustre of former glories has long since faded. Both clubs have sacked their managers this season - HSV's Mirko Slomka lasted just three games, while Werder waited a little longer before giving the long-suffering Robin Dutt his marching orders.

The men who are now at the helm of both teams were promoted from within, and face huge challenges. Hamburg's Joe Zinnbauer has made the Redshorts a bit grittier and tougher to beat, but horror shows like October's 3-0 defeat at Hertha Berlin still crop up now and again.

HSV's goalscoring problems remain - they have scored just four goals in their first 11 games, and Opta tell us no team has ever scored fewer goals in the first 11 games of a top-flight campaign in Germany. I do find Hamburg's goalscoring issues baffling - they have creative, busy players like Lewis Holtby and Nicolai Muller, while Pierre-Michel Lasogga is a bull of a frontman with composure in front of goal.

Former Werder defender Viktor Skripnik was parachuted in from the U23 side a few weeks ago, and he has made an instant impact. SVW have won all three of their competitive games under the Ukrainian, and they have conceded just one goal in that period. Haphazard centre-back Assani Lukimya has rightly been benched, and Sebastian Prodl looks more comfortable with Alex Galvez alongside him.

In another sensible switch, veteran Clemens Fritz has been pushed into midfield, with Theodor Gebre Selasie slotting in well at right-back. The enigmatic Franco Di Santo continues to impress in attack (although he is struggling with a knee injury), and he's getting great support from attacking midfielders Fin Bartels and Zlatko Junuzovic. Bearing in mind that his contract expires in the summer, the irrepressible Junuzovic will be hot property in January.

Werder have had the whip hand over their bitter rivals in recent seasons, and they have beaten Hamburg in five of the clubs' last six meetings. The potential absence of Di Santo would be a big blow, but at least Skripnik has got the rest of the team firing, so they're not so reliant on the former Wigan forward anyway. Hamburg won their most recent home game 1-0 against Bayer Leverkusen, but I can see no reason why they are odds-on to beat Werder, especially given their awful recent record against them.

The market expects goals, but I don't see it that way. Both teams have been galvanised defensively by their coaching changes, and without Di Santo on show we have a battle between two struggling attacking units. Four of the last six northern derbies between these two have featured fewer than three goals, and Under 2.5 Goals is trading at an attractive 2.1411/10. It's also worth considering backing No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.3811/8.

Recommended Bets
Lay Hamburg at 1.9420/21
Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.3811/8

Paderborn v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday November 22, 14:30

Sometimes you need a bit of luck when you're trying to start a misfiring engine (believe me, I know), and Borussia Dortmund finally got their Bundesliga motor running before the international break with a 1-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach. It was a game that Jurgen Klopp's men dominated (Gladbach only had one goal attempt), but BVB needed a cataclysmic error from Christoph Kramer to gift them the vital breakthrough. The Germany international inexplicably chipped his own keeper from 40 yards - "oops" doesn't begin to cover it.  

So Dortmund are off the bottom, but what now? We can talk about returning confidence and top players having to come good eventually, but until Die Schwarzgelben start putting a run together, I'm steering clear of backing them.

I'm more attracted by the prospect of goals at the Benteler Arena. Newly-promoted Paderborn have built their impressive start to the season on attacking intent, and their games have generally featured goals as a result. They have played 11 league games this term - eight of them have seen a payout in the Over 2.5 Goals market, and five of those encounters have featured four goals.

Dortmund have defensive personnel issues, with both Mats Hummels and Sokratis sidelined, so the out-of-form Matthias Ginter may be pressed into service. With BVB livewire Marco Reus declared fit for the game, I can see goals going in at both ends.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.427/5

Hannover 96 v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday November 22, 14:30

If you'd have told me at the start of the season that Hannover would be two points above Bayer Leverkusen after 11 games of the campaign, I'd have made a discreet call to the men in white coats, while edging towards the nearest door. However, the 96ers have gone on a fine winning run which has catapulted them into the Champions League qualifying spots, while Bayer's free-flowing attack has started to run dry.

Hannover have won their last three Bundesliga games, keeping clean sheets in all three. Japanese playmaker Hiroshi Kiyotake (one of the best dead-ball specialists in the whole league) has proved to be an inspired acquisition, and he has scored two goals in his last three appearances. Despite Kiyotake's efforts, the Hannover attack has found it tough going this term. It's extraordinary that a team lying fourth in the standings has scored just nine goals in 11 games.

Spanish striker Joselu was brought in as a marquee summer signing, but since scoring three goals in his first two games for the club, he has netted just once in his last 11 appearances.

Bayer Leverkusen looked like title contenders on the opening weekend of the campaign, as they produced a stunning 2-0 win at Borussia Dortmund, but Roger Schmidt's men haven't won on the road in the Bundesliga since. Schmidt is still wrestling with the problem of finding the right balance between attack and defence, and Die Werkself have scored just one goal in their last three league games. 

Bayer are far too short for the win at 1.9720/21. They aren't picking up road wins, and Opta tell us they haven't won on any of their last six trips to Hannover. I'm also drawn to backing No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.285/4, as both attacks are misfiring, and that bet has paid out in each of Hannover's last ten league games.

Recommended Bets
Lay Bayer Leverkusen at 1.9720/21
Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.285/4

Kevin will be commentating on Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim and Stuttgart v Augsburg for TuneIn Radio with talkSPORT. You can listen by searching for "Bundesliga English" on TuneIn's app or website. You can also follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinhatchard

2014-15 Bundesliga P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 43

Points Returned: 42.36

P/L: -0.64 points