воскресенье, 23 ноября 2014 г.

La Liga Betting: Real Madrid to enjoy themselves in Eibar

Double Trouble: Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema are both in fine goalscoring form for Real Madrid

Real Madrid have the strikers to put on another goal fiesta in Eibar on Saturday, says Tobias Gourlay, and Barcelona's clash with Sevilla will also be entertaining if it follows the formbook...

Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol
Friday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Athletic 1.9210/11 Espanyol 4.77/2 draw 3.65n/a

Athletic Bilbao made a poor start to the season, but are now unbeaten in four since their annual beating at the Bernabeu.

Recent results include a home win over Sevilla and a draw at Valencia, two teams with more form and class than Friday night's visitors to San Mames.

Espanyol, who finished last term with a run of four consecutive away defeats, have taken just two points from 15 on the road this season.

Since Ernesto Valverde took over, Athletic are W15-D6-L3 at home. One of those defeats came in this fixture last term, but the price on a revenge victory is a good one.

Recommended Bet
Back Athletic @ 1.9210/11

Eibar v Real Madrid
Saturday 17:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Eibar 17.016/1 Real 1.222/9 draw 7.87/1

Eibar made it into Spain's top flight on the back of a solid defence. The men who conceded just 12 times across 21 home games in last season's Segunda Division have not been so parsimonious in La Liga.

Gaizka Garitano's team have not kept a clean sheet at home since the opening day. Home and away, they've leaked 11 times in the last five rounds of the season.

Real Madrid have scored 21 times in five La Liga away games. Cristiano Ronaldo, who missed Real's surprise 2-4 defeat at Real Sociedad back in August, has hit the back of the net in 6/6 subsequent La Liga and Champions League away games.

Home and away, Karim Benzema is on a hot streak of seven and should fancy his chances of making it eight straight scoring appearances in La Liga and the Champions League.

The absence of Luka Modric, who was playing well before getting sidelined for at least three months with a thigh injury, is concerning, but the price is long enough to justify a punt on at least one team (we reckon it's more likely to be Real) hitting at least four goals on Saturday afternoon.

That's been a winning bet in three of Real's four Liga away wins this season. Something that's paid out in 5/5 is Over 1.5 First Half Goals. Real's half-time scores on the road this term are 2-2, 3-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0. Eibar, meanwhile, are yet to see a goalless half-time draw at Ipurua.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ 2.1211/10
0.5pts - Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 3.02/1

Barcelona v Sevilla
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Barcelona 1.241/4 Sevilla 15.014/1 draw 7.613/2

Sevilla's ten-year record in this fixture is W0-D1-L9.

In the last five seasons nine of their 10 trips to the Big Two have brought defeats.

This season Unai Emery's men have already lost at Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, who both finished alongside Barcelona in last season's top four.

We can't really back the outsiders then, despite some unconvincing performances from Barcelona in recent weeks.

The best bet might just be backing both teams to score. After a long run of clean sheets, Barca have conceded in each of their last three La Liga games.

Home and away, each of Sevilla's last seven meetings with one of the Big Two have brought goals at both ends.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.855/6

Deportivo La Coruna v Real Sociedad
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Deportivo 3.613/5 Sociedad 2.265/4 draw 3.45n/a

Real Sociedad are 2.265/4 favourites to win David Moyes' first game in Spain.

The Basques have an identical record to their hosts (W2-D3-L6) and the market is putting a lot of faith in Sociedad's two previous wins. They came at home to Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, and apparently suggest that Moyes won't have to do much to quickly return 15th-placed Sociedad to the top-half heights of last season.

Sociedad haven't won away from home yet this term, but Football Form Labs data suggests Moyes can at least avoid defeat on his debut: since the start of 2012/13 Sociedad are W7-D8-L1 away to teams in the bottom half of the table after at least 10 rounds of the season.

The Double Chance will be heavily odds on, so we're more interested in the fact 9/16 of those matches went Over 2.5 Goals, which has also paid out in seven of Deportivo's first 11 games since their return to La Liga and 4/5 at the Riazor.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4

Levante v Valencia
Sunday 16:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Levante 5.85/1 Valencia 1.728/11 draw 3.953/1

This is a derby that has been tightly - if not particularly fiercely - contested since Levante came up to La Liga in 2010. Four meetings at Levante's Ciutat de Valencia have produced two home wins, two away wins and a total of just six goals.

That doesn't tally well with Valencia's record of 8/11 going Over 2.5 Goals since Nuno Santo took over for the start of the season.

They are third in La Liga, but Valencia's away form does not justify such a short win price. They've won 2/5 so far this season, after notching just nine wins in 38 over the two previous campaigns.

Lucas Alcaraz has been in charge of Levante for just three games. Since opening with a defeat at in-form Celta Vigo he has overseen a first home win of the season and a creditable draw at Sevilla. 

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Levante +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.0421/20

Elche v Cordoba
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Elche 2.0421/20 Cordoba 4.67/2 draw 3.3512/5

Elche's 2-1 home win over Espanyol was the first game in 17 at the Manuel Martinez Valero to deliver Over 2.5 Goals.

It was also the fifth time in five outings there this season that the home side had conceded at least once.

On Sunday evening they host Cordoba, whose first home game under Miroslav Djukic brought a 2-4 defeat at Atletico Madrid.

The visitors have conceded in 5/5 away games, but scored themselves in three of the last four. 

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.35/4

2014/15 La Liga P/L

Staked: 37pts
Returned: 29.05pts

P/L: -7.95pts

2013/14 P/L: +18.77pts (11.55% ROI)

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