Bolton boss Neil Lennon is going for win number five
Mike Norman takes a look at Saturday's Championship fixtures and believes that Bolton look a good bet to win at Blackpool, Birmingham can take three points from Rotherham, and Molineux is set to witness yet more goals...
Blackpool 3.412/5 v Bolton 2.35/4; The Draw 3.45n/a
Neil Lennon has quickly adapted to life in the Championship and appears to be turning Bolton's season around. The Trotters have won four of their last six league games, only Bournemouth (five) have won more in the same period.
It goes without saying that the key to winning games is scoring goals and that's exactly what Lennos has his side doing presently. Bolton have scored exactly three goals in each of their last three victories, while since the former Celtic boss took charge they've managed to find the back of the net at least once in every game they've played.
The international break possibly came at a bad time for Bolton, but they ought to be full of confidence given that their recent form has taken them out of the relegation zone, and a trip to Lancashire rivals Blackpool should hold little fear.
The Tangerines have a new manager also - Lee Clark - but his tenure hasn't gone too well as of yet, picking up just one point from a possible nine. In fact Blackpool remain rooted to the bottom of the table, they're bottom of the recent form table, and they are the lowest scorers in the Championship - just 11 goals scored in 17 games.
Obviously you never know what has been worked on in the two week break between games, how morale has been lifted, and even team news is thin on the ground 48 hours before a match, but on ability and recent form at least, Bolton represent a very solid wager to pick up their fifth win in seven games.
Recommended Bet
Back Bolton to Win @ 2.35/4 (best bet)
Rotherham 2.166/5 v Birmingham 3.711/4; The Draw 3.55/2
I'm a big believer in 'New Manager Syndrome' - for whatever reason clubs tend to go through an instant upturn in results when a new boss is appointed (apart from hapless Blackpool of course) and they often represent a bit of value in the Match Odds markets.
Birmingham had won just one league game at St Andrew's since October 2013 before Gary Rowett took over earlier this month, and yet in his first game in charge the former Burton boss masterminded a terrific home win over highflying Watford, before holding Cardiff to a goalless draw four days later.
Four points on home soil from a possible six for a club who had previously lost four home league games on the spin - including a 0-8 mauling to Bournemouth - can certainly be classed as an upturn in form, and it remains to be seen if they can carry on the improvement.
However, this weekend Birmingham are on their travels, and even before the change of manager I rarely had second thoughts about backing them on the road. Now that they have a new boss and have shown some form Brum look a decent price to win at Rotherham.
The Millers are without a win in five games and the last time they were at the New York Stadium they were comrehensively defeated by Middlesbrough in a game which they could easily have conceded six or seven.
A win for Birmingham will take them out of the relegation zone and above Saturday's opponents so there's a lot at stake here as we gear towards the busy Christmas period, but while I understand the home side being favourites I'm not so sure Rowett's men should be as big as 3.711/4 and therefore they're well worth chancing.
Recommended Bet
Back Birmingham to Win @ 3.711/4
Wolves 2.166/5 v Nottm Forest 3.613/5; The Draw 3.613/5
I've chosen the clash at Molineux once again for my 'Overs' wager this weekend, and it's partially because Forest, despite winning last time, remain out of form and are conceding plenty of goals, though at the other end they have plenty in attack to get on the scoresheet themselves.
Stuart Pearce's men went 10 league games without a win before coming from behind late on to beat Norwich 2-1 last time, but in their previous six games they conceded an alarming 15 goals - every one of their last seven Championships encounters have gone over the 2.5 goals mark, four of those games witnessed at least four goals scored.
That recent trend itself makes odds of 2.01/1 about Over 2.5 Goals in this match slightly surprising, but the price becomes even more appealing when you look at Wolves' recent outings.
Kenny Jackett's men conceded five last time out at Derby, and before that they'd had results such as 3-3 (twice), 1-3, and 1-2 (twice). In fact, five of their last nine games have witnessed at least four goals scored, while Over 2.5 Goals paid out 78% of the time during that spell.
You don't need me to remind you that stats are there for guidance only and that on any give day they can prove meaningless, but given what I've mentioned above 2.01/1 about witnessing at least three goals in this encounter seems extremely fair.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1
Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 64 pts
Returned: 73.54 pts
P/L: + 9.54 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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