четверг, 27 ноября 2014 г.

Europa League Betting: Dynamo to keep on charging

Stanislav Cherchesov - good keeper, good coach

After a successful tournament so far, Kevin Hatchard's back with his best Europa League bets, including a suggestion that Dynamo Moscow will continue to dominate their group...

Dynamo Moscow v Panathinaikos
Thursday 27 November, 16:00
Live on BT Sport 2

With the Russian national team struggling in Euro 2016 qualifying after a dismal World Cup in Brazil, the country's football needs a pick-me-up at club level. Russian clubs haven't been able to make much of an impact in continental competition in recent seasons, but Dynamo Moscow have clinched a place in the Europa League's last 32 with two games to spare. 

Dynamo coach Stanislav Cherchesov was one of my favourite goalkeepers growing up. He loved a moustache (he still has one), and he could be wildly inconsistent, which gave park kickabout amateurs like myself a bit of hope and inspiration. Since taking the reins from Dan Petrescu in April, Cherchesov has led Dynamo to a respectable third in the Russian Premier League, and they have won all four of their Europa League group games. They have specialised in late drama, winning three of those group matches with goals in the last 15 minutes. Indeed, they only qualified for the group stage with a 90th-minute goal from Chris Samba in the second leg of their tie against Omonia Nicosia.

Panathinaikos cannot now qualify for the knockout phase, after they collected just one point from their first four games. They saved their best two performances for the double-header against PSV Eindhoven - they drew 1-1 in the Netherlands, and led 2-1 in Greece before losing 3-2. 

Pana's recent form is patchy, just three wins in their last eight games, and with nothing to play for I can't see them troubling a Dynamo side that has won four of the last five home games. You can boost Dynamo's odds to 2.01n/a if you back them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap, which will pay out in the event of anything bigger than a one-goal home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Dynamo Moscow -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.01n/a

FC Zurich v Apollon Limassol
Thursday 27 November, 20:05

With the top two in Group A - Borussia Monchengladbach and Villarreal - facing off in Spain, FC Zurich and Apollon Limassol know they almost certainly need a win if they are to keep their qualification hopes alive.  

There's every reason to believe there'll be goals in this encounter. Both teams need to go for the victory, and it's worth noting they shared five goals in the reverse fixture, as Apollon won 3-2 in Cyprus. There have been at least four goals in three of Apollon's four group-stage outings, while three of Zurich's matches in Group A have featured five goals apiece.

I'm leaning towards backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5, but it's also worth considering backing Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.568/5, as that bet has paid out in five of Zurich's six Europa League games this season.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5

Rijeka v Standard Liege
Thursday 27 November, 18:00

Croatia's Rijeka and Standard Liege of Belgium are still in with a shot of qualifying for the last 32. They are locked together on four points, with Feyenoord two points better off ahead of their showdown with Sevilla in Rotterdam. 

Rijeka have played well in their two home games in the group stage. They beat Feyenoord 3-1, and had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Europa League holders Sevilla. That's contributed to the Croatians' price of 2.0621/20 to win this game.

However, I've been impressed with the job Standard coach Ivan Vukomanovic has done since he replaced Guy Luzon at the helm. Les Rouches have lost just two of their seven matches under Vukomanovic, and they have won three of their five away games, including a highly impressive 2-0 victory at Anderlecht.

Standard beat Rijeka 2-0 in Belgium in the reverse fixture, and now that their confidence has been rebuilt, I think they can get a similar result here. I'm happy to back the visitors Draw No Bet at 2.789/5, to give us the insurance of the draw.

Recommended Bet
Back Standard Liege Draw No Bet at 2.789/5

Dynamo Kiev v Rio Ave
Thursday 27 November, 18:00

Dynamo Kiev can be an incredibly frustrating side to tip. When you think they'll succeed, they fail, and vice versa. However, like a doe-eyed lover who can't bear to leave a cheating spouse, I'm going back to Serhiy Rebrov's side. I can change them, I know I can!

Dynamo are yet to taste defeat in their domestic league, and they are unbeaten at home in all competitions. In their Europa League home games this season, they have beaten Steaua Bucharest 3-1, and seen off Aalborg 2-0. In nine home games in all competitions, they have kept an impressive seven clean sheets.

Considering that Rio Ave were cup specialists in Portugal last season (they reached the final of two cup competitions), they have been a real disappointment in the Europa League. They have taken just a point from their four group games, and they were battered 3-0 at home by Dynamo in the reverse fixture. Rio Ave have nothing to play for, but Dynamo have work to do to make sure of qualification, and I'm expecting a thumping home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Dynamo Kiev -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.021/1

2014/15 Europa League P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 38

Points Returned: 45.76

P/L: +7.76 points

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