Premier League Stats Review: QPR to win basement battle against poor travellers Leicester

Charlie Austin can lead QPR to victory against Leicester

Stats guru Andrew Atherley says Leicester's awayday woes point to a vital three points for Harry Redknapp's team on Saturday...

The relegation battle has tightened up in recent weeks and, although QPR cannot climb out of the bottom three this weekend, they can improve their survival hopes with a home win over Leicester.

This is one of two crucial relegation clashes in the Premier League on Saturday - the other is freshly buoyant Burnley at home to Aston Villa - and the results could increase the worries of some teams just above the drop zone. In particular, Sunderland (home to Chelsea) and Hull (away to Manchester United) have little prospect on form of picking up points on Saturday and could be dragged nearer the bottom.

QPR v Leicester is one of those must-win games for both clubs and the hosts have the edge, mainly because of Leicester's woeful away form. The visitors have lost five out of six on the road and their only away points came from a smash-and-grab 1-0 win at Stoke in September, which brought their sole away goal as well as their only clean sheet.

Any team, even rock-bottom QPR, must be looking to exploit Leicester's weaknesses on the road and, in fact, Rangers have decent prospects of doing so.

For a start, QPR's scoring record is reasonable. After their opening-day blank in a 1-0 defeat by Hull - which included a Charlie Austin penalty miss - Harry Redknapp's side have scored in all five home games since (netting twice in each of the last four).

Of the five teams that have stopped QPR scoring this season, three are in the top six (the other two are Hull and Tottenham, in the first two games). That record gives considerable encouragement that Rangers will be able to find the net against Leicester.

Leicester, of course, are more likely to score against QPR than they are against most Premier League teams but their failures to find the net are as commonplace against the poorer sides as they are against better opposition. They have failed to score in three out of five against bottom-half teams and in four out of seven against top-half sides.

The odds reflect the positions in the table - with Leicester two points ahead of QPR in 18th place - but this looks a good-value opportunity to back QPR at 2.3811/8.

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With a full programme of Premier League games to follow in midweek, this is a good chance for teams to make some quick headway and the fixture list has fallen well for Swansea to be one of those teams.

Garry Monk's impressive side have back-to-back home matches against bottom-half opposition - a category in which they excelled under their new manager.

Since Monk was appointed in February, Swansea's home record against bottom-half teams is W6 D1 L1, with three wins out of three this season. It is also noteworthy that five of their six wins in that category were to nil - testament to the ability of Monk's side to dominate possession against lesser opposition.

Their strength in this type of match-up gives them a great chance at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday at odds of 1.824/5 and again at similar odds on Tuesday night against QPR. In the early betting on that game, Swansea are available at 1.774/5.

Palace are likely to prove the most difficult opponents, as they are capable of scoring and have a W1 D1 L2 record away to top-half teams this season. QPR, on the other hand, have been dire on the road against top-half sides, losing all six games with a goal difference of 2-15.

Recommended Bets
Back QPR to beat Leicester at 2.3811/8 (1pt)
Back Swansea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.824/5 (1pt)
Back Swansea to beat QPR (on Wednesday) at 1.774/5 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 29 pts
Returned: 30.05 pts
P/L: +1.05 pts