Aston Villa v Southampton: Goals in short supply as atrocious attack meets league's best defence

Can Fraser Forster keep an eighth clean sheet of the Premier League season?

Southampton have been the surprise package of this Premier League season and they are strongly fancied by many to get the better of out-of-form Aston Villa on Monday night. Joe Dyer assesses the odds...

Aston Villa v Southampton
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Aston Villa 

September 13 - the last time Villa won a game of Premier League football. That seven match horror run has seen them pick up one point and score one goal and after the completion of this weekend's nine other top-flight games they sit 17th. It's of very little surprise to see Villa bottom of the six match form table 

Worse still, Villa are without arguably their best players with Ron Vlaar a major doubt and Christian Benteke still suspended after his red card against Spurs.  

Southampton 

Where Villa's season has descended into a nightmare, Southampton are living the dream. Just three points separated the two sides after four Premier League fixtures with Villa hot on Chelsea's tails in second place, but the seven games since for Saints have yielded six wins with just a lone defeat to Spurs. A win on Monday night would make it nine from 12 games and leave Southampton just four points off leaders Chelsea.   

Ronald Koeman has a fully fit defensive unit to choose from but there are slight concerns over the fitness of midfielders Morgan Schneiderlin and Steven Davis. Absences for either may affect their ability to control the game and possession. 

Match Odds 

Saints' form has been so consistently strong that they are 1.774/5 to beat Villa and shortening all the time. The home side are 5.59/2 to win their fourth game of the campaign. The draw trades at 3.8514/5.

Southampton's chance is obvious but the price is too short for me. If desperate to get behind an away win I'd rather search for bigger prices elsewhere, perhaps by waiting for liquidity to arrive in the Win to Nil market. Similarly the Match Odds/Unders double markets need layers but the away win/Unders combination would be of interest     

Every poor run must end some time but that would be the only rationale for backing Villa, even at this price. The draw has trading potential. 

Under/Over 2.5 Goals 

Southampton's stunning run has been built on a very effective defence that has conceded just five times, which, in a possibly amusing coincidence, is the same amount of goals Villa have scored. The stats show that the Hampshire club are the league's third highest scorers, but there's a real split between home and away form with just six of their 23 scored on the road.

Brad Guzan has picked the ball out of the back of his net 16 times in the Premier League, with an equal split of eight at home and eight away. That is a pretty average total and Villa's woes really can be put down to their atrocious attack. Unders looks a sensible play at 1.845/6 while it could take quite some time for the Under 1.5 line to break (if indeed it does). It's a potential trade for sure.   

Sidemarket Selection - Both Teams to Score

I really fancy this game to be light on goals and backing No in this market at a shade under evens looks a decent play. Southampton have kept seven clean sheets this year, while Villa have four. If either side do it here we have a winning bet. 

Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.865/6
Back No in Both Teams to Score @ 1.9420/21

Joe Dyer's Premier League P&L

Staked: 15 pts
Returned: 11.88 pts
P/L: -3.12 pts