Football Bet of the Day: Don't back the home side, back the Hom side

Columbo - not as good as Saarbrucken and Homburg

After a dose of frustration in Switzerland, Kevin Hatchard hopes to ease his mind with a trip to the German Regionalliga. 

Saarbrucken v Homburg
Tues November 25, 17:30

A Swiss miss for us to start the week, as our boys Servette were held to a 1-1 draw by pesky FC Schaffhausen. Despite dominating possession and unleashing a flurry of shots at the Schaffhausen goal, the home side couldn't force home a late winner. Instead of eating Toblerone as a reward for victory, I scoffed it as a consolation for defeat.  

We aren't travelling far in our bid for redemption, as we make a short hop over the border to Germany for a Regionalliga Sudwest clash between Saarbrucken and Homburg. Saarbrucken and Homburg sounds like a 1970s cop show that Channel 5 would show on a Sunday afternoon - Saarbrucken's the fresh-faced rookie with fire in his eyes, while Homburg's the hard-bitten veteran nearing retirement. I'm obviously in the wrong job, but some of you may have reached that conclusion already.

Anyway, 3rd-placed Saarbrucken have hit a sticky patch in their promotion campaign. After winning eight of their first ten league matches, Saarbrucken have only claimed victory in two of their last seven. They're not as solid as they once were at the Stadion Ludwigspark, having won just one of their last four outings on home soil. 

Saarbrucken haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games, and at the other end veteran American striker Matt Taylor has seen the goals dry up. He bagged a brace in the recent 4-1 home win against struggling Pirmasens, but they were the 33-year-old's only goals in his last eight appearances.

Homburg are on a roll, having put together a seven-match unbeaten run. Admittedly, most of those games were against sides in the bottom half of the table, but the sequence did include wins over Astoria Walldorf (6th) and Elversberg (2nd). Homburg are scoring regularly, and have netted at least once in 12 of their last 14 games.

I think Saarbrucken are 1.738/11 simply because they are 3rd and started the season so well, but their form has dipped, and that price looks too short against a side that hasn't lost since September.

Recommended Bet

Lay Saarbrucken at 1.738/11

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 57

Points Returned: 54.41

P/L: -2.59 points