суббота, 22 ноября 2014 г.

The Goalscorer Gamble: Speedy Sanchez will get off to a flyer

Can Alexis Sanchez continue his hot streak when Arsenal face Manchester United?

Dan Fitch is refreshed after the international break and ready with five more goalscorer tips, which includes a punt on Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez.

After an international break you could normally put a gun to my head and I still wouldn't be able to tell you who I picked as my last Goalscorer Gamble selections, never mind knowing how they got on.

Yet my last column sticks in the mind. Only one of my five selections delivered but, boy, did it deliver. Charlie Austin scored the first goal for QPR against Manchester City, having been tipped by yours truly at a whopping 13.012/1. 

This week the aim is to find similar value, while also increasing the our ratio of winners. We start in the Premier League with Manchester City's match with Swansea, in a game that features what we in the business refer to as a "sure thing".

Sergio Aguero has scored 14 goals in 15 outings this season, with 12 coming from 11 Premier League games. Some nine of those league goals have come in his last six matches.

Put simply, Aguero is the best player in the league right now and will soon be trading at a much lower price than he currently is to score. Indeed, every other bookie has him much shorter than the 1.84/5 available at Betfair. Even at odds-on, that's value which should be snapped up.

Next we look towards the match between Arsenal and Manchester United, which features one of the few players keeping pace with Aguero in the goalscoring charts and showing similar brilliance.

Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez has scored eight goals in ten league games and 13 in total. Seven of those goals have come from his last six games, in which he has largely been used as a central attacking midfielder.

On five occasions Sanchez has scored the first goal in a match, which is more than any other Premier League player. Back him at 6.411/2 to add to this tally by scoring the first goal against Manchester United's frankly rickety defence. 

Another South American leading his league's goalscoring charts is Juventus' Carlos Tevez. The Argentine has been on a quiet run of late, until bursting back with a brace in a 7-0 win over Parma.

That brought his season's tally to 11 goals in 15 games, with eight coming in ten Serie A games. This week he faces a trip to a high-flying Lazio side. The Romans are currently fifth but have conceded in each of their last four games and lost to Empoli 2-1 last time out. Take a punt on Tevez to breach their defence once more at 2.47/5.

The joint top scorer in Serie A is Jose Callejon. We backed the Napoli forward to deliver in the last column, only for Gonzalo Higuain to score the winning goal.

We'll give him one more chance to redeem himself. This weekend Napoli are at home to Cagliari, who are currently 15th and have won just two games from their last 11.

With Napoli unbeaten in their last five, they should score goals against such a struggling side. It is Higuain who is truly the man in form right now but the likely price of 5.75n/a for Callejon to score the first goal, appeals more.

Another side likely to help themselves to plenty of goals this weekend are Real Madrid, when they face Eibar. Madrid have scored an incredible 40 goals in their last eight league games, which is bad news for Eibar, who have won just one game from their last seven. 

The player we're putting our faith in is Gareth Bale. The Welsh wizard has been struggling with injuries this season but has still managed to chip in with five league goals from eight appearances. This included the first goal in the 5-1 win over Rayo Vallecano in Real's last outing, so let's back him to build on that with another goal at probable odds of 2.25n/a.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Sanchez to score first at 6.411/2
Back Aguero to score at 1.84/5
Back Tevez to score at 2.47/5
Back Callejon to score first at 5.75n/a
Back Bale to score at 2.25n/a

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