Against All Odds: Boca to bankrupt Los Millonarios

Boca Juniors can book their place in the final

Argentina's biggest rivals meet in the semi-final of the Copa Sudamericana tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that Boca Juniors can avoid defeat.

River Plate v Boca Juniors
Thursday November 27, 23:45 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video  

It isn't time to panic for River Plate just yet but a run of five matches without a win, culminating in a defeat at Racing Club at the weekend has seen the reigning champions of Argentina drop to second in the league. Their wonderful run of form has come to an end and that is largely down to the goals drying up.

Los Millonarios have netted just twice since their last victory and that includes a blank in a 0-0 draw at Boca Juniors in the first leg of this tie. That means that Marcelo Gallardo's side need to win the match inside 90 minutes or the best they can hope for is penalties. They failed to do that last week at La Bombonera, but they also failed to do it when they played Boca on this ground in October - and the visitors went down to 10 men after 41 minutes.

Opponents, Boca Juniors, got back to winning ways on Sunday as they beat Independiente 3-1. They weren't in the midst of a slump, but the victory will have been a nice boost following a pair of draws. Rodolfo Arruabarrena's men would have been disappointed to not build a lead in the first leg, but they won't fear a trip to El Monumental and they couldn't be facing River at a better time.

The second most successful team in Argentina have an excellent away record to point to as well as they've lost just three of their last 18 on the road, nine of which were victories.

It would take a brave man to back River Plate to win this match at odds-on and I'm not one of those. That's why, with their price trading at around the 1.991/1 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay River Plate v Boca Juniors @ 1.991/1

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 317 pts
Returned: 335.75 pts
P/L: + 18.75 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)