Against All Odds: Colombian heavyweights to flop

Atletico Nacional may be cut down to size tonight

It's Colombian action for Paul Robinson tonight as he thinks that Atletico Nacional have to be opposed at the prices for their home match with Atletico Huila.

Atletico Nacional v Atletico Huila
Friday November 14, 00:45 GMT

The season in Colombia is drawing to a close as eight teams are left to fight it out for the two final series places. Atletico Nacional play the first of their six group games tonight and they will be desperate to get off to a winning start. They come into this fixture on the back of two victories but they are far from bombproof.

Juan Carlos Osorio's side have lost four of their last 10 outings and that includes a run of three straight defeats in October. It's three wins from three at home, but prior to that, Los Verdolagas were beaten by tonight's opponents and held by Deportes Tolima, Vitoria and Once Caldas.

Atletico Huila only finished 13th last season but they have improved greatly this year and they now have a real shot of making the league final. While they were beaten last time out - 1-0 at Uniautonoma - the Neiva based club had gone 10 without defeat - winning six of them.

Virgilio Puerto's men have been flying on the road of late after being pretty shocking for a sustained period of time. Two losses from seven is a dramatic improvement, and as mentioned above, they won on this ground one month ago.

I wouldn't suggest that the hosts shouldn't be favourites, but I can't have them at odds-on given the recent form on offer. That's why, with Atletico Nacional trading at around the 1.728/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Atletico Nacional v Atletico Huila @ 1.728/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 305 pts
Returned: 325.65 pts
P/L: + 20.65 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)