Against All Odds: Botafogo RJ to go down with all guns blazing

A flood of tears or a flood of goals? Or Both?

It's do or die time for Botafogo RJ in Brazil tonight as if they don't win, they are all but relegated, and Paul Robinson thinks that will lead to plenty of goals.

Chapecoense v Botafogo RJ
Sunday November 23, 21:30 GMT

It was heartbreak last night as Fabricio scored in the 94th minute to deny us a winner but we won't let that affect us as we look to atone this evening. First of all, I must warn you that this isn't a selection based on stats. It's a bit of a punt, a Hail-Mary play if you will, but the odds are good and there are a specific set of circumstances in-play that could cause a higher-scoring game than usual.

Botafogo RJ simply have to win. They are down in 19th place - five points adrift of safety with just three matches to go. Let's not forget that the club known as 'The Great Fire' finished fourth last season, but a paltry nine victories this term has them on the verge of burning out. 

There are mitigating factors of course - Oswaldo de Oliveira left the club to take over at Santos, their two top scorers moved on to pastures new and Clarence Seedorf departed to Milan. Nevertheless, their decline shouldn't have been so drastic and they are massive odds-on to be plying their trade in Serie B next year.

Tonight they travel to Chapecoense, a club who were promoted from Serie B last season. They themselves are fighting a battle to stay in the top flight, but their situation is nowhere near as dire as that of their opponents. 

Jorginho's side produced a magnificent 4-1 win at Fluminense in the week and that lifted them to 15th - two places and one point clear of the relegation zone. They still need at least one more win to be safe though and given that they face champions elect, Cruzeiro next, followed by a tricky trip to Goias, the manager will no doubt be telling his players to win this at all costs.

So there you have it, no real mention of stats, be it form, goals or otherwise. Just two teams who need to win. Time after time these circumstances lead to an abnormally high scoring game, and I'm taking the chance that this will follow suit. That's why, with under 3.5 goals trading as low as 1.3130/100, I have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Chapecoense v Botafogo RJ @ 1.3130/100

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 315 pts
Returned: 333.28 pts
P/L: + 18.28 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)