Serie A betting: Milan derby, Juve taboo and crazy Napoli

Roberto Mancini is back at Inter, but will he begin with a bang or bust in the Milan derby?

Dave Farrar predicts Lazio will end their 11 year wait for victory over Juventus, Napoli v Cagliari could "go mental" and Roberto Mancini might get a rude Inter awakening.

Lazio v Juventus
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

It's 11 years since Lazio last managed to beat Juventus, and Stefano Pioli's team are priced at a generous looking 4.03/1 to come away from Saturday night's fixture with a win. Juve have been something of an enigma this season: I'm still convinced that they'll end the season as Champions, but they have shown weaknesses in recent weeks that were rarely evident during the reign of Antonio Conte. He is much missed, and while Max Allegri is a proven Serie A winner, he's not in the same league as Conte.  

That makes Juventus vulnerable in games like this. They're priced at 2.111/10 to win, and while that would have been a price worth taking during the Conte years, it's to be swerved here. It seems that Allegri will continue his switch to a back four rather than the three which has served Juventus so well, and I'm still unconvinced.

The only dilemma from a betting perspective is whether Lazio are worth backing to win or if we should keep the draw onside by laying Juve. My inclination is to do the former, as it's a price that jumps out at me. Lazio do have injury worries in the shape of Mikael Ciani, Edson Braafheid and Stefano Mauri, but to beat Juve you must first frustrate them, and I believe that Pioli's well organised midfield has a chance of doing that.

Lazio do sometimes struggle to break down quality defences, but with former Juve man Antonio Candreva returning from the international break in great form, he may just be the key to tormenting the club at which he failed to shine.  

Recommended Bet: Back Lazio to beat Juventus @ 4.03/1

Napoli v Cagliari
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 1

I have two friends who regularly read the European previews on this site, and both approach things in different ways. One, a wannabe hipster (WH) who drinks peculiarly expensive coffee in North London, asks me every weekend if any Serie A game is likely to "go mental." The other, a charmingly angry Irishman (CAI), insists on backing every over 2.5 goals tip that I give, but nothing else. This means that, if I've failed in an overs bet but nailed a correct score, he'll still insist that I'm the worst tipster on the planet, and that James Eastham is king.

Both of those statements may be true (the second certainly is) but not for the reasons that the CAI states. A bet's a bet after all. And the bet in Naples on Sunday is for the game between Napoli and Cagliari to go mental.

The last four meetings between these teams at this venue have produced an average of 3.5 goals, and I wouldn't be surprised if this eclipses that average. No team has had more shots this season than Napoli, and none has a better shooting accuracy than Cagliari. It's true Lorenzo Insigne is out for five months, Dries Mertens misses this game after being knocked out cold against Wales with Juan Zuniga injured and Jorginho suspended, so the Partenopei are even more vulnerable.

There will be goals unless Vesuvius erupts, and the question is how we support that instinct with a bet. Over 4.5 Goals are trading at 4.216/5, with over 5.5 available at 8.27/1. I want both of those prices on side. Napoli have already drawn 3-3 with Palermo here, and beaten Verona 6-2, and this is a similar profile game.

In both of those matches, Napoli were challenged by an attacking side, and I think that Cagliari will go at them and possibly go in front. Look at their away games: a 4-1 win at Inter, 4-0 at Empoli, and a 4-2 defeat by Lazio. The bad news is that captain Daniele Conti is suspended and hitman Marco Sau injured, so Samuele Longo could finally find a breakthrough.

I'm convinced, so should you be, and so, reading this somewhere on Sunday morning, will be WH and CAI. Pile in, chaps, pile in. I doubt you'll be disappointed. 

Recommended Bet: Back Over 4.5 Goals in Napoli v Cagliari @ 4.216/5

Recommended Bet: Back Over 5.5 Goals in Napoli v Cagliari @ 8.27/1 

Milan v Inter
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

The weekend closes with the Milan derby, and there is of course a frisson about this fixture with Roberto Mancini replacing Walter Mazzarri in the Nerazzurri hot seat. This derby conforms to all of the "local difficulty" clichs.  You don't need to be in form to win it, home advantage means little, and there are normally bundles of red cards (11 dismissals in the last 12 meetings).

Put bluntly, this is a difficult one to call with any confidence, and the prices reflect that, but Milan are a better team than Inter. Mancini is good, but whether he'll be able to change things instantly is another question. He'll be hugely dependent on Mauro Icardi, who has scored Inter's last four League goals. 

Having started the season playing an easy on the eye brand of football, Pippo Inzaghi has naturally become a little more pragmatic, and while his Milan team is flawed, they are the more likely of the two city rivals to end the season in the Top Four. Stephan El Shaarawy's return to goalscoring is a huge bonus for both the Rossoneri and the League itself, and Milan may just have too much for Inter here.

I won't be going crazy at 2.747/4, but that's generous enough (Inter are too short at 2.8415/8) and so worth a small bet. Neither team is in much form though, with Milan failing to win in four and Inter having won only two in seven. A game to watch with a small interest.

Daniele Bonera and Gary Medel both miss the Derby della Madonnina due to bans. Milan supporters would argue that's a win-win for them.

Recommended Bet: Back Milan to beat Inter @ 2.747/4

2014-15 P/L

From 27 points staked on Serie A this season, Dave is currently showing a loss of 4.86 points.