Against All Odds: Max value in goals with Rodriguez around

It's been quite a season for Maxi Rodriguez

The week kicks off in Argentina for Paul Robinson as he thinks that there will be at least three goals when Arsenal de Sarandi travel to Newell's Old Boys.

Newell's Old Boys v Arsenal de Sarandi
Tuesday November 25, 00:30 GMT

It's been a relatively disappointing campaign for Newell's so far as after 17 fixtures, they've won only six times. That has left them in eighth place and the perennial title challengers are already nine points off the pace. A run of half a dozen matches without a victory has cost them and while they've since recorded back to back wins over San Lorenzo and Tigre, they were beaten at Defensa y Justicia in the week.

Gustavo Raggio's side will be keen to improve upon their home record as 12 points from a possible 24 isn't really good enough. The bright spot has been the form of Maxi Rodriguez as the former Liverpool man has notched nine league goals so far this term and that has helped their matches average 2.38 goals each time. Three of their last four in front of their own fans have gone over 2.5, with their two most recent ones being 2-2 and 3-1.

Arsenal de Sarandi are 14th in the table after their 16 fixtures and the reason why they are that low is because of their away form. A whopping 19 of their 20 points have come at Estadio Viaducto and that is something that manager, Martin Palermo, will need to address if he wants his team to progress.

The Viaduct Men haven't struggled for goals on the road as they've only fired two blanks from seven away games and they even netted twice at Lanus a couple of weeks ago. It's the defence that are letting them down and that has led to five out of the seven rewarding under 2.5 layers.

There's an excellent chance that we'll get at least three goals here, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.654/6 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Newell's Old Boys v Arsenal de Sarandi @ 1.654/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 315 pts
Returned: 333.28 pts
P/L: + 18.28 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)