Football Bet of the Day: Expect a goal-filled tussle in Brussels

Cesare Prandelli has made a nightmare start at Galatasaray

Kevin Hatchard envelops himself in the glamour of the Champions League tonight, and he expects goals as Group D strugglers Anderlecht and Galatasaray go head-to-head... 

Anderlecht v Galatasaray
Wed November 26, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Interactive

Another near miss last night, as Saarbrucken justified their odds-on price by winning 1-0 against Homburg. The hosts took a 23rd-minute lead through Dennis Wegner, but we were given hope by a red card for Saarbrucken's Marco Meyerhofer three minutes later. As I often say, it's the hope that kills you.

Bloodied but unbowed, we plough on to Belgium, and a touch of Champions League glamour. Well, it's sort of glamorous, because we're focusing on Anderlecht against Galatasaray. Borussia Dortmund have already qualified from Group D, and Arsenal are on the brink, so this is effectively a Europa League qualification playoff.

Galatasaray have made a poor start to the season, and the feeling is that former Italy coach Cesare Prandelli would have been sacked by now if it wasn't for the exorbitant amount the club would have to pay to settle his contract. Gala are only a point off top spot in the Turkish Super Lig, but they've thrown in some grotesque displays of late. They were thumped 3-0 at home by Trabzonspor at the weekend, and a month ago they were drubbed 4-0 at mid-table Istanbul Basaksehir.

The Champions League form is even worse. Prandelli's strugglers were beaten 4-1 away and 4-0 at home by Dortmund, and they lost 4-1 at Arsenal in the game before that. Their only point in the group stage came from a 1-1 draw with Anderlecht in Istanbul, and they needed a 90th-minute equaliser from Buruk Yilmaz to get that.

Anderlecht kept their faint qualification hopes alive with an extraordinary comeback against Arsenal at the Emirates. Trailing 3-0, Les Mauves et Blancs scored three times in the last half-hour to snatch a 3-3 draw. Like Gala, Anderlecht are just a point off top spot domestically, and their Champions League performances have deserved more points. Aside from that late leveller at Gala, Anderlecht also saw a 1-0 lead become a 2-1 deficit at the death of their home game against Arsenal.

I'm very tempted to back the hosts at 2.245/4, but I'm being held back by the fact that Galatasaray have a talented group of players that are capable of performing much better than they have been. Their chronic inconsistency means they could throw in another shocker, but they could also produce a display where everything clicks.

Therefore, I'll go for Over 2.5 Goals at 1.865/6. That bet has paid out in three of Anderlecht's four Champions League games, and also in three of Gala's group matches. It's also worth noting that Gala haven't kept a clean sheet since mid-September, and Anderlecht have managed just one shut-out in their last eight outings.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.865/6

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 58

Points Returned: 54.41

P/L: -3.59 points