Against All Odds: Sao Paulo to upset the odds

Will it be a memorable night for the fans of Sao Paulo?

It's the second leg of the Copa Sudamericana semi-final tonight between Sao Paulo and Atletico Nacional and while the Brazilians trail 1-0, Paul Robinson thinks they can still progress.

Sao Paulo v Atletico Nacional
Thursday November 27, 00:00 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video  

It's been a much-improved campaign for Sao Paulo as while they couldn't quite catch Cruzeiro in the Campeonato, second place is looking pretty secure and they still have a chance of making the final of this competition.

Muricy Ramalho's side may have lost the first leg by a goal to nil in Colombia, but they weren't exactly dominated. Admittedly they didn't manage to score an away goal, so if they concede tonight they'll need three themselves, but the tie is still in the balance for my money.

The most successful club in Brazilian history have won six of their last seven in front of their own fans, with only one of the victory scorelines not being good enough to force at least penalties if replicated here.

Atletico Nacional are the reigning champions of Colombia and they made it through to the quarters of the Copa Libertadores earlier this year. They've won their last four Sudamericana fixtures by a 1-0 scoreline but they haven't really faced anyone of note away from home.

Juan Carlos Osorio's men have actually lost three of their last four on the road and they failed to score in two of them. This is a huge test for a team that were beaten by Once Caldas at the weekend as although their focus would have been on this match, it's hard to suddenly just turn on the style. 

This should be a very tight game with the hosts holding as much chance of progressing as the visitors. That's why, with Atletico Nacional trading at around the 1.654/6 mark to qualify, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Atletico Nacional to Qualify v Sao Paulo @ 1.654/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 317 pts
Returned: 335.75 pts
P/L: + 18.75 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)