The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2014/15: Round 7

Where Diego Costa goes the goals usually follow

The Betting.Betfair editors have busily rooted through the Premier League markets to bring you their quartet of recommendations ahead of an intriguing weekend in the top-flight...

Joe Dyer
Back Swansea @ 1.910/11 to beat Newcastle
Saturday, 15:00

At 1.910/11 I'm happy to be a backer of Swansea at home to Newcastle this weekend. 

The Toon showed signs of improvement away to Stoke on Monday night but still ended up defeated for the 16th time in a Premier League match this calendar year. 

Under pressure Alan Pardew - 1.4640/85 to be the next top-flight manager out of a job - really needs to deliver three points but I'm not sure his team have it in them. Their only win in 90 minutes this season was against Gillingham and their away record in the league reads one draw, two defeats, no goals scored and five conceded. 

Swansea's results appear to have tailed off since a fast start but they can be excused a defeat at Chelsea while red cards hampered their chances against Southampton (lost 0-1) and Sunderland (nil-all draw at the Stadium of Light).    

Newcastle are capable of squeezing a draw - they have three in the league - but this looks a good chance for Garry Monk's talented Swansea team to get back to winning ways in the Premier League. 

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L +15.90

Dan Thomas
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Chelsea v Arsenal at 1.824/5
Sunday, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports 1

Arsenal travel west with a lot to prove after last season's embarrassing 6-0 defeat and I'm expecting them to put up a much better performance - not hard admittedly - and give Chelsea a game in front of the Sky cameras.

But even though the Gunners have won away at Stamford Bridge more often than any other visiting side in the Barclays Premier League, with seven victories, more recent history suggests they will struggle to come away with anything.

Opta tell us that Arsenal have won none of their last 14 Premier League meetings against Chelsea, Man Utd or Man City so it's unsurprising that the Blues are strong favourites to continue their 100% home record in the league. But a price of 1.684/6 isn't particularly tempting, so it's to the goals markets I'm headed.

Arsene Wenger's side may have struggled to break down a disciplined Tottenham side last weekend but they were at their fluent best in midweek against Galatasaray, with Danny Welbeck outstanding, and I fully expect them to follow in Bolton, Swansea and Schalke's footsteps and net at least once at the Bridge. 

Chelsea, for their part, have scored in every game this season and, with Diego Costa declaring himself fit, I expect them to do so more than once - which means at least three goals and a winning bet for me.

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: -5.30

Mike Norman
Back West Ham @ 1.9420/21 to beat QPR
Sunday, 16:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

It's been a mixed season for West Ham so far; a great win at Palace was followed by a home loss to Southampton, before a fabulous victory over Liverpool was followed by - dare we say it - a disappointing defeat at Old Trafford given that the home side played with 10 men for most of the game.

But what Sam Allardyce's men are doing is scoring goals, 10 in their last five Premier League games in fact. And that's six more than Sunday's opponents QPR have scored in all their games this season.

What was very noticeable in West Ham's live game against Liverpool was the intensity and tempo that the Hammers set, they were on the front foot from the first minute rather than just waiting for something to happen. Enner Valencia looks to have taken to the Premier League instantly and I can see him alongside either Diafra Sakho or Mauro Zarate causing the Hoops lots of problems.

Harry Redknapp looks set to be without hard-working midfielders Joey Barton and Jordan Mutch for the game at Upton Park so I expect it to be a long afternoon for former Hammers' defender Rio Ferdinand an co., and ultimately I expect the home side to take all three points.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -6

Luke Moore
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Hull v Crystal Palace at 2.265/4
Saturday, 15:00

As has been written elsewhere in these pages, Hull are the entertainers of this division currently; their last six games in a row have gone overs and fans of the Tigers have been enthralled by 11 goals in their last two fixtures.

What's more, Crystal Palace have served up two 3-2s in their last three games, and so this looks like it could be a real goalfest, especially when you'd think that both sides have probably targeted it as a great opportunity to grab three points.

Palace are much more open under Neil Warnock, when compared to his predecessor and Hull are a decent proposition at home. For those reasons I was surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at an odds-against price of 2.265/4 and so I'll greedily hoover it up in a bid to get back into the black.

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -8

A 10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Editors 2014/15 Season P/L

1. Joe Dyer: +15.90
2. Dan Thomas: -5.30
3. Mike Norman: -6.00
4. Luke Moore: -8.00

Collective P/L: -3.40